DavidKrejci USA Today

 

 

Is this playoff stud a regular season underachiever?

 

 

David Krejci’s fantastic 2013 playoff run ended with a Stanley Cup Final appearance and a post-season leading 26 points in 22 games. To put this in perspective, Krejci tallied seven more post-season points than Conn Smythe winner Patrick Kane who finished 2nd in playoff scoring with 19 points.

 

In the 2010-11 playoffs, Krejci hoisted the Stanley Cup and led the playoffs in scoring with 23 points in 25 post-season games. Over the past three post-seasons, Krejci has two playoff scoring titles to his credit and a total of 52 points in 54 playoff games. David Krejci is a playoff stud.

So how does this line up with what most us really care about – his regular season stats and his contribution to fantasy rosters. Let’s take a closer look at Krejci’s past three regular seasons.

 

 

 

 Recent Career
 Year Team GP G A Pts
 2010-11 BOS 75 13 49 62
 2011-12 BOS 79 23 39 62
 2012-13 BOS 47 10 23 33  

 

What should be of some concern is Krejci’s recent 2012-13 regular season performance, where he finished with only 33 points in 47 games, good for a 58 point pace over a full season. Looking at last season’s first quarter summary courtesy of Frozen Pool, Krejci actually had a pretty decent start to the lockout shortened season.

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

20

5

12

17

0.85

70

6

8

37

2

0

4

0

0

02:47

54.4

5.7

19:12

31.5

 

Krejci followed this up with an abysmal second quarter:

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

23

4

10

14

0.61

50

-5

10

50

3

0

3

0

0

01:44

50.5

4.9

18:16

30.0

 

Another question mark is the recent departure of Nathan Horton, who just signed a long term contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and how this will impact Krejci going forward. The Lucic-Krejci-Horton line was the most dominant line during last year’s playoffs combining for 64 points.

The trio played regularly as well during the past two seasons. Here is a snapshot of their line production over the past two seasons.

 

2012-2013:


Pnts

%Total

Line Combination

15

65.2%

HORTON,N - KREJCI,D - LUCIC,M

5

21.7%

KREJCI,D - LUCIC,M - SEGUIN,T

1

4.3%

HORTON,N - KREJCI,D - LUCIC,M - PEVERLEY,R

1

4.3%

HORTON,N - KREJCI,D


2011-2012:


Total Points for David Krejci : 62 (2011-2012)

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

HORTON,NATHAN - KREJCI,DAVID - LUCIC,MILAN

20

32.26%

EV

KREJCI,DAVID - LUCIC,MILAN - SEGUIN,TYLER

12

19.35%

EV

KREJCI,DAVID - LUCIC,MILAN - PEVERLEY,RICH

6

9.68%

PP

HORTON,NATHAN - KREJCI,DAVID - LUCIC,MILAN - PEVERLEY,RICH

5

8.06%

PP

HORTON,NATHAN - KREJCI,DAVID - LUCIC,MILAN

3

4.84%

 

If there is one sure thing in Beantown for the start of the 2013-14 season, Krejci will line up with Milan Lucic and Patrice Bergeron will line up with Brad Marchand. Rounding out Boston’s top six will be recent additions Jarome Iginla and Loui Eriksson, creating a potent top two lines that appears to be an improvement despite the departures of Horton, Tyler Seguin, and Jaromir Jagr.

 

The logical choice for Krejci’s line appears to be Iginla, who from a fantasy standpoint is arguably an upgrade over Horton. The Bruins have the talent in place and we could see an improvement in Krejci’s numbers next season that will align more with his playoff success.  The main question will be chemistry and how Claude Julien shuffles the lines. 

 

Final Forensics Note:


Knowledgeable poolies are aware of the difference in Krejci’s historical production in the playoffs and the regular season. New poolies may be swayed by his impressive post-season stats and draft or value Krejci higher than they should.

 

If your pool incorporates the NHL playoffs then Krejci should jump up your draft list. Boston is a perennial contender and Krejci has solidified himself as an elite post-season fantasy option.

 

 

If your pool only incorporates regular season statistics, then treat Krejci as a player who will get you 80 games, 20 goals, 45 assists, an even plus/minus, 50% FOW, 35 PIM, and 180 SOG.

 

According to Capgeek, Krejci is entering the fourth year of his current five-year contract. Krejci is 27-years-old and in his prime. The 2013-14 campaign may be another status quo 60-65 point season, but expect a slight jump in 2014-15 when Krejci is playing for his next contract.

 

***

 

Tom Collins and Dallas Guzzwell check in every Friday to dig deep on players of interest in fantasy circles. They walk you through the various statistical tools of Jay Arbuthnot's Frozen Pool at your disposal.

 

Dallas was born and currently resides in Kelowna BC with his wife Christine. Dallas has a BSW degree from Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops where he also played varsity soccer for three seasons. An avid sports enthusiast, Dallas has always followed hockey and ever since a friend convinced him to join a fantasy hockey league in 2007 it has developed into a passion.

 

Previous Forensics Posts:

 

Travis Zajac - Can He Bounce Back?

 


Write comment
Comments (3)add comment

MolsonX said:

MolsonX
... Thanks for the comments guys!

Cheers,

Dallas
September 05, 2013
Votes: +0

MauriceandtheRichards said:

MauriceandtheRichards
... Great read!

Small sample size a bit small but it is worth looking at. Maybe a sell high following playoff runs if he keeps this up for another year or so.

Great read though!
September 03, 2013
Votes: +0

sixhands said:

sixhands
Excellent analysis Well done, enjoyed the read.

It's amazing how quickly one forgets who the playoff point leaders are. Especially if they're not already a household name.

I admit, Krejci has exceeded my expectations!

Cheers

Dave
August 22, 2013
Votes: +0
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