Pavelski


The following entry features two teams with opposing building goals become perfect trading partners - eventually coming to terms on a blockbuster. This trade effectively triggers one team’s rebuild, and actively attempts to complete the other team’s road to victory. Experience both views in detail and witness the results of their decisions.

 

Anatomy of a Blockbuster trade :


Team A –
Our Win Now team that has committed to go all-in
Team B –
Our rebuild team that has finally decided to go into a three year rebuild.


 

The rebuilding GM realizes that they are losing arguably the better tender in Lundqvist, and forward in Sharp. However, they are already looking ahead. A quick debriefing of the players should be done in order to gauge value and tradability:



Kulikov – Can be a favourite on any team due to age/value/ELC. Easily movable.
Pavelski – Young, on a strong team, and very nice contract. Easily movable.
Fleury – Leagues where deep playoff teams are major incentives, Fleury is golden. Easily movable.
Guaranteed a 1st and a 3rd Round draft pick - great for future and timeline.
And finally three project prospects to stock the shelves.



As a follow up, the rebuilding team can either sit on these pieces or continue to breakdown, essentially starting a snowball effect. With the latter, there is no time to get attached to pieces that are already on the move. Trading these newly acquired players, alongside other “win now” bodies, with the goal of scouting intriguing picks and prospects is key.



Once completed, the rebuilding team should have accumulated multiple 1st, 2ndand 3rd round picks within the next two entry drafts as well as acquired multiple top prospects, filling up a much needed cupboard of talent. In doing so, the rebuilding GM will have successfully reset their team’s timeline and the waiting game will begin.



On the other hand, the win now team sees the same deal in a very different mindset:
1) Downgrade Kulikov to Montador, who is still serviceable given the league’s playoff structure.
2) Have that difference spread out over upgrading Fleury to Lundqvist and Pavelski to Sharp.
3) In order to seal the deal, put in the conditional picks and project prospects.



Giving up future and potential is not easy, but a GM who wants to win now, will gladly make these decisions. The curveball to a deal like this is rolling the dice on those conditional picks, and it just so happens that the league in particular awards extra draft picks to Division (third), Conference (second), President Trophy (first) and Stanley Cup (first) winners.



The franchise in question has won back to back Conference titles and looks to be a favourite to repeat. However, like any other competitor, their primary goal and vision is to not only challenge for first place, but take home the honours as well. Should that happen, the conditional draft picks sent in the deal above will basically cancel each other out. A continuous cycle of this nature could have the franchise doubling its draft picks yearly, making it a decent gamble to take in order to get the job done.


Additional thoughts :                                               

Many poolies, especially highly active ones, struggle with the idea of rebuilding. Not surprising. Accepting to rebuild and actively following through with it is arguably one of the hardest things to accomplish in fantasy sports. It takes commitment, patience, as well as the ability to seek out and strike at opportune moments.



Rebuilding is not caving. Rather than be in denial, take a good look at your team. If you are not in the top tier of teams or yourself continually out of contention year after year, then you are probably in limbo. It is your duty to accept what must be done.



The biggest mistake a rebuilding GM can do is assume that they can turn on autopilot and pay little to no attention to their team as it drops in the standings. Why? Because they will miss opportunities to accelerate the rebuilding process by playing off of the perceived value of players and eventually turning that stock around. I have seen some who were clearly on the path to rebuild, do a total 180, and build a contending franchise through dealing alone. Although, to complete a string of strong trades, proper time management, dedication and differing degrees of aggressiveness is needed.


Often times, there is a brief window of opportunity where a GM can truly maximize the return of a trade depending on the mindset and attitude of fellow managers. That return can be an extra pick, prospect or any other upgrade - usually due to streaks, signings, or injuries. This is especially true with veterans. Building teams can afford to gamble on vets or off year players, eventually turning them into trade fodder for competing teams. If the gambles fail, the rebuilding team simply drops further into the standings, collecting a better draft selection. On the other hand, if the veteran pans out, the builder can bring in additional assets trough a deadline deal... basically a win-win scenario.



Once the rebuild is complete, and all the “then” prospects have become emerging rookie contract players and the “then” picks have turned into decent prospects, the franchise now has an identity. It is time to put on a different thinking cap and gear up for competition. It is now you who must to supply the league’s new rebuilding teams with those future assets, while in turn, gaining valuable win now players to mesh with your young core. Be active, strategize and do what is necessary to get your franchise to the Promised Land. Remember, when going for the win, points now are worth a lot more than points later.



“If you want to win, you have to put the time in” - words that mean nothing without action.


If this is your year, and feel confident about going all-in, go ALL-in.


Disclaimer: These views cater to a large 30 team salary dynasty league; therefore the building methods expressed in this article will differ from those in partial keepers – explained in a later edition.



Know that there are as many different ways to win as there are to build and the paths shown above are not absolute. However, they can be used as a guide to build upon, giving insight on making the right decisions and applying them.



Part II of this series will dive into the world salaries and how they affect teams across the building spectrum. Until then, the chart below displays the up-to-date results from the teams mentioned in this report. Take a look and feel free to leave comments. 


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Comments (19)add comment

Greg said:

vangregs
Kudos to gates Thats some sound analysis right there mate!
August 12, 2011
Votes: +0

Greg said:

vangregs
... I must state my preference for Team B's side of this trade though I can see the motives to make it, considering he is dealing from a position of strenght winning back to back Western Conference titles, therefore collecting the bonus picks in the process.

I have now traded for Kulikov and also own Pavelec here and hope to contend in the East, just for that cold case of beer on my doorstep.

@praba You might hv to send the most expensive case of beer in your life come next April smilies/smiley.gif Do I get my choice of a brand smilies/smiley.gif?

August 12, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... @praba - nothing like a 30 team Salary cap Dynasty is there!? If you aren't number one, you get no bragging rights, or case of beer at your doorstep... haha.

@Pengwin7 - Thanks on the kind words and sound analysis! You have to join one of these leagues, my friend!
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... @shoeless,

1) Team B sent Vincent Lecavalier & Joe Pavelski

for Artem Anisimov, Jason Chimera, Matt Lombardi
2012 1st, 2nd and 4th
2013 1st, 2nd and 4th
Anders Lee & Oskar Klefbom

2) Team B sent Chris Kunitz, Pavel Kubina, Brent Johnson

for Pascal Dupuis, Stephane Robidas, Eddie Lack, Matt Read, James Wright
Lance Bouma, 2014 1st, 2013 2nd, 2013 3rd, 2014 5th

3) Team B sent M.A Fleury

for M.Brodeur, C.DeHaan, K.Petrov, M.Kitsyn, and 1st 2012 (or 2013)

4) Team B sent Dimitry Kulikov, Brendan Morrison, 5th 2012

for Jakub Kindl, Matt Calvert, Matt Cullen, Tyler Johnson, 7th 2012
August 11, 2011
Votes: +1

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Team B Overall, I like Team B's haul on this one.

Pavelski could outpoint Sharp this year. San Jose opened up a Top Six spot for Pavelski. It is very possible that Joe could ride on Line #1 w/Jumbo Joe & Marleau. I don't think Havlat is a lock for that RW1 spot.

It is also possible that Fleury (and I love the Johnson pick-up) could outpoint Lundqvist. PIT will be much improved. MAF got off to a very slow start last year and looking at his full-year numbers doesn't suggest his potential for this year.

There is a potential reward here though for Team A.
I've heard Patrick Sharp could be full-time Line2 center. If this league counts FOW, Sharp may be able to pull lots of FOW from a LW position. Pavelski, conversely, might start the season as C... but might actual be playing RW. This can hurt in a FOW league.

Overall - a pretty good trade, but I wouldn't have bet my bank account that Team A's main three will outpoint Team B's main three.

Great article!
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

praba said:

praba
... i am also in this league (in fact i gave team B kadri/varlamov in a deal for neal/kaberle).

not sure why i see all the hate for team A...if giving up Kulikov and a 1st means you get 1st place instead of 2nd...why not? Nobody remembers who finished 2nd...Just ask the Canucks, Flyers etc.
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
@Gates Yeah - I feel the same way about pedestrian H2H leagues - playoffs are about luck most of the time.

Just curious - what happened to Kulikov, Pavelski and Fleury in this deal? - I lost track of them in the article.
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... @shoeless lol! It probably will happen too.

Playoffs, given the format, is a big crapshoot. While winning the Cup sure feels great, I think there is a bigger sense of accomplishment in winning the regular season.

Going into year four and no team has won both titles.






August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

Shoeless said:

Shoeless
Hand Team A a Tissue He got some on him!

And when the Pens and Sharks are in the finals this year, take his gun away from him.
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

Austin said:

austeane
Rebuild. I have just started my first rebuild a couple of weeks ago in a 14 team salary cap league (hockeyutopia-ecfl) with a $20 buy in (I get the team for free until it makes the playoffs because it was so bad) and you keep players until their contracts run out. 25 mand prospect roster and 21 man regular roster.

A screenshot of my team is here.
http://postimage.org/image/2oqp0btqc/

So far I have traded Hemsky and a 5th round prospect pick for Hornqvist a 2nd round pick and Scott glennie.
Also traded Vanek, Landon Ferraro, Derek Grant, Daniel Larsson and 2 million in cap space (we have 70) for Bobrovsky, Marco Scandella, TJ Brennan, Jordan Caron, a first round amateur, a 4th round amateur and a 2012 3rd round amateur.

My goal now is to condense some of my talent into top end prospects and young players and trade off a couple more veterens. (whitney, roy, versteeg)

I plan on maximizing the use of my free time and then win at least one championship in 3-4 years and win GM award for most trades yearly smilies/smiley.gif.
August 11, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... Also in this league, come playoff time, if you want to go for the Cup, all your non-playoff team players get eliminated from the get-go. So Kulikov, given the team he plays for, may sit out of the playoffs for a few seasons, while Montador and Sharp join Bickell and Brunette to sink or swim with Chicago's playoff run.

With Kesler, Burrows, Boyle, Lundqvist, Backstrom andVokoun - other avenues weigh in as well.

Finally, finishing top three also means that the 1st pick will be no higher than 27th overall.

@Marty - that's awesome! Love seeing rebuild-to-win now stories. Good on ya!

August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

Martin Bouchard said:

Nhlsim Jackets
Being active You are absolutely right and cannot afford to fall asleep after trading all your big players for prospects and picks. You have to be very aggressive on the trade market and try to get rid of players you think... well, sell high and buy low! That's the key.

I have been rebuilding for 2 years now and have been able to sell high and buy low numerous times. I traded Penner for Vanek at the beginning of last year, bought low on Shattenkirk before he made his big splash, traded Del Zotto just after his great rookie season, got picks that helped me draft Tavares, Eberle... you see the picture.

At one point in time, I had Tavares, Eberle, Del Zotto, E.Johnson, Shattenkirk, Hamonic, 3-4 first picks, Brassard, Frolik, Moller, Kindl... I thought that I could wait and look for my team to improve on his own. But I didn't, I wanted to try to contend the fastest possible. I continued and sold high on a lot of them...

2 years ago : Gagné, Drury, Bieksa, Toskala, 1st pick OV (Stamkos), Conroy.

Now : Tavares, Krejci, D.Sedin, Kessel, Little, Hartnell, Letang, The Wiz, B. Campbell, Hiller, Schneider, Jeffrey, Nyquist, Marincin and couple other prospects.

I achieved that by being very very active and agressive (and with the help of Dobberhockey!!).
August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... @TML

Shouldn't have left smilies/wink.gif
August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

GMGates said:

GMGates
... @landslide - the younger side is definitely very appealing.

However, last year in league settings :

Fleury - 3478 pts
Lundqvist - 4718 pts
a difference of 1240 fps.

Last year Team A finished 1917 fps from top spot (3rd).

It isn't the easiest decision, but it's worth going for the win.


August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

TML said:

TML
SCFHL2 Aaaah, first thing I did after this reading this was to check SCFHL2. Lol.
August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

Paul's Coffey said:

Pauls Coffey
Lopsided Trade i agree w/ Landslide
the "Rebuild" team made out like bandits
August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

SK said:

crackho1976
Landslide Team B wins that trade in a landslide and that doesn't seem to be a rebuilding trade?

Fleury is younger but just as good as a fantasy goalie as Henrik..
Sharps points are pretty much a wash vs Pavelski.

Basically team B gets Kulikov and a 1st without really losing any pts this year.....great trade imo!
August 10, 2011
Votes: +1

GMGates said:

August 10, 2011
Votes: +0

Rich Perron said:

uofmehockey
... This has you and Big_DL written all over it. lololololol
August 10, 2011
Votes: +0
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