MarcusJohnasson


Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.

 

Anaheim Ducks = Target

 

Games: 6 (3H/3A)

Favorable Matchups:

  • @ Buffalo – Allowing nearly 36 shots against per game.  In the bottom third of the league in GA/G.  Nine goals against in the last three games.  Just not a good team.
  • vs. Phoenix – Bottom five in terms of shots allowed per game.  In the bottom third of league in GA/G.  16 goals against in the last four games.  Traditionally a good defensive team, but are vulnerable to let a few go by right now.
  • vs. Buffalo – See above.
  • @ Florida – Third worst team in GA/G.  Seventh worst PK in the league.  Eight goals against in the last three games.

 


The Ducks upcoming schedule consists of a game every other night starting Saturday.  Vancouver is their only upcoming opponent who is currently not in the bottom third of the league in defense.  Anaheim is averaging over three goals for per game.  The extra juicy matchups are the two against Buffalo and the trip to Florida.

 

Florida Panthers = Consider

 

Games: 7 (3H/4A)

Favorable Matchups:

  • @ Washington – Fourth worst at GA/G and SA/G in the league.  13 goals against in the past four games.
  • vs. Edmonton – Worst defensive team in hockey.  76.0% on the penalty kill.  17 goals against in the past five games.
  • @ Ottawa – Allowing the most shots against per game in the NHL.  Averaging over three goals against per game.  Coming off a 5-2 loss to San Jose and 6-5 loss to Chicago.

 

The Panthers play seven games between November 1st and November 12th, highlighted by a visit to Washington and then the defensively-challenged Oilers come to town.  Only two other teams play the same number of games during this period. 

 

Pittsburgh Penguins = Beware

 

Games: 5 (2H/3A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

  • @ NY Rangers – Have not allowed more than two goals against since October 19th.  Coming off a shutout of Buffalo and they still have this guy named Henrik Lundqvist.
  • @ St. Louis – Top eight in GA/G and shots against as well.  Three goals against in the past two games.

 

The Penguins have a home-and-home with Columbus this Friday/Saturday and then only play three games for the next 12 days.  Now I would never bench Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin as they are matchup proof, but perhaps a guy like Jussi Jokinen or Brandon Sutter might be bench worthy for some of these tougher matchups (or the whole week in weekly leagues).

 

Toronto Maple Leafs = Avoid

 

Games: 4 (1H/3A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

  • @ Vancouver – Fourth best PK and top ten in shots allowed per game.  Eight goals against in the past four games.
  • @ Boston – 1.83 GA/G this season (4th overall).  Averaging only 28 shots against per game and Tuukka Rask is damn good.
  • @ Minnesota – Surprisingly, in the top five for goals against.  Allowing the fewest shots in the NHL probably helps that.  Averaging only 23.4 shots against per game.

 

The Maple Leafs are one of two teams to only play four games during the next two weeks.  Three of those games are on the road and only one is against a team in the bottom half of the league in goals against.

 

 

Possible Pickups


Here’s a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.

 

Anaheim: Mathieu Perreault (11%) – Goal and an assist against Boston on Thursday night.  He’s getting second line minutes at even strength and the power play.  Slotting in on that second line will allow Perreault to reap the benefits of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry taking the brunt of opposing teams’ defensive attention.

 

NY Rangers: Carl Hagelin (11%) – Just coming back from injury and picked up an assist in his first game back.  He received 17:15 and 18:08 in ice time while lining up with Brad Richards at even strength.  Richards is the only Ranger that appears to be producing so far this year.

 

Florida: Brad Boyes (14%) – Seven points on the year and has the best linemates you’ll get in Florida right now (Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau).

 

Washington: Marcus Johansson (23%) – I was pretty surprised to see him owned in less than a quarter of leagues.  He’s averaging 17:43 per game with 2:21 of that on the power play.  His normal linemates are none other than Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom.

 

Edmonton: Ryan Jones (0%) – With Sam Gagner back, Mark Arcobello got bumped down to the third line at even strength.  Jones was with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ales Hemsky last game and got some power play time as well with the big boys.

 

 

Light Day Targets


Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?

 

Week: Monday, November 4 through Sunday, November 10

 

Monday: 4 teams

Wednesday: 8 teams

Friday: 8 teams

Sunday: 14 teams

Tuesday: 18 teams

Saturday: 20 teams

Thursday: 22 teams

 

Back to the normal heavy Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday schedule with a welcome surprise of a heavier Sunday (14 teams in action).

 

So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?

 

 

Mon

Tues

Wed

Thur

Fri

Sat

Sun

Winnipeg Jets

X

 

X

 

X

 

X

Anaheim Ducks

X

 

X

 

X

 

X

New York Rangers

X

 

X

X

 

 

X

Nashville Predators

 

 

X

 

X

 

X

Colorado Avalanche

 

 

X

 

X

 

X

 

Friday, November 1 to Thursday, November 7

Best Bets

Detroit (4.43) - 4 Games: @CGY, @EDM, @WPG, DAL

Minnesota (4.41) - 4 Games: MTL, NJ, CGY, @WSH

Carolina (4.41) - 4 Games: TB, @NYR, PHI, NYI

Washington (4.36) - 4 Games: @PHI, FLA, NYI, MIN

Columbus (4.26) - 4 Games: @PIT, PIT, OTW, NYR

Steer Clear

Toronto (0.95) - 1 Games: @VAN

Nashville (1.76) - 2 Games: @LA, @COL

Los Angeles (2.21) - 2 Games: NSH, BUF

Buffalo (2.86) - 3 Games: ANH, @SJ, @LA

Phoenix (2.90) - 3 Games: @SJ, VAN, @ANH

Saturday, November 2 to Friday, November 8

Best Bets

Anaheim (4.35) - 4 Games: @BUF, @NYR, PHX, BUF

NY Rangers (4.21) - 4 Games: CAR, ANH, PIT, @CBJ

Winnipeg (4.00) - 4 Games: CHI, DET, @CHI, NSH

New Jersey (3.95) - 4 Games: PHI, @MIN, @PHI, @TOR

Buffalo (3.86) - 4 Games: ANH, @SJ, @LA, @ANH

Steer Clear

Pittsburgh (2.00) - 2 Games: @CBJ, @NYR

Toronto (2.05) - 2 Games: @VAN, NJ

Los Angeles (2.21) - 2 Games: NSH, BUF

Tampa Bay (2.26) - 2 Games: STL, EDM

Dallas (2.76) - 3 Games: @OTW, @BOS, @DET

Sunday, November 3 to Saturday, November 9

Best Bets

Minnesota (4.41) - 4 Games: NJ, CGY, @WSH, @CAR

Ottawa (4.26) - 4 Games: DAL, @CBJ, MTL, FLA

Dallas (3.75) - 4 Games: @OTW, @BOS, @DET, CHI

Calgary (3.56) - 4 Games: @CHI, @MIN, @STL, @COL

Columbus (3.41) - 3 Games: OTW, NYR, NYI

Steer Clear

Nashville (1.90) - 2 Games: @COL, @WPG

Toronto (1.91) - 2 Games: NJ, @BOS

Pittsburgh (1.95) - 2 Games: @NYR, @STL

Montreal (2.00) - 2 Games: STL, @OTW

Los Angeles (2.21) - 2 Games: BUF, VAN

Monday, November 4 to Sunday, November 10

Best Bets

Anaheim (4.35) - 4 Games: @NYR, PHX, BUF, VAN

NY Rangers (4.31) - 4 Games: ANH, PIT, @CBJ, FLA

Florida (4.11) - 4 Games: EDM, @BOS, @OTW, @NYR

Washington (4.01) - 4 Games: NYI, MIN, @PHX, @COL

Edmonton (3.99) - 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, @PHI, @CHI

Steer Clear

Toronto (1.91) - 2 Games: NJ, @BOS

Pittsburgh (1.95) - 2 Games: @NYR, @STL

Los Angeles (2.21) - 2 Games: BUF, VAN

Tampa Bay (2.21) - 2 Games: EDM, @DET

Calgary (2.66) - 3 Games: @MIN, @STL, @COL

Tuesday, November 5 to Monday, November 11

Best Bets

Boston (4.46) - 4 Games: DAL, FLA, TOR, TB

Florida (4.11) - 4 Games: EDM, @BOS, @OTW, @NYR

Washington (4.01) - 4 Games: NYI, MIN, @PHX, @COL

Edmonton (3.99) - 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, @PHI, @CHI

NY Islanders (3.90) - 4 Games: @WSH, @CAR, @CBJ, @MTL

Steer Clear

Toronto (1.91) - 2 Games: NJ, @BOS

Pittsburgh (1.95) - 2 Games: @NYR, @STL

Detroit (2.21) - 2 Games: DAL, TB

Los Angeles (2.21) - 2 Games: BUF, VAN

Calgary (2.66) - 3 Games: @MIN, @STL, @COL

Wednesday, November 6 to Tuesday, November 12

Best Bets

Colorado (4.46) - 4 Games: NSH, CGY, WSH, @CAR

Anaheim (4.40) - 4 Games: PHX, BUF, VAN, @FLA

NY Rangers (4.31) - 4 Games: PIT, @CBJ, FLA, NJ

New Jersey (4.04) - 4 Games: @PHI, @TOR, NSH, @NYR

Florida (3.95) - 4 Games: @BOS, @OTW, @NYR, ANH

Steer Clear

Toronto (1.91) - 2 Games: NJ, @BOS

Dallas (1.95) - 2 Games: @DET, CHI

Pittsburgh (1.95) - 2 Games: @NYR, @STL

Minnesota (2.04) - 2 Games: @WSH, @CAR

Calgary (2.70) - 3 Games: @STL, @COL, SJ

Thursday, November 7 to Wednesday, November 13

Best Bets

Philadelphia (4.31) - 4 Games: NJ, EDM, @OTW, @PIT

New Jersey (4.04) - 4 Games: @PHI, @TOR, NSH, @NYR

Edmonton (4.00) - 4 Games: @TB, @PHI, @CHI, DAL

Florida (3.95) - 4 Games: @BOS, @OTW, @NYR, ANH

Tampa Bay (3.92) - 4 Games: EDM, @DET, @BOS, @MTL

Steer Clear

Pittsburgh (2.01) - 2 Games: @STL, PHI

Phoenix (2.06) - 2 Games: WSH, @STL

Chicago (2.26) - 2 Games: @DAL, EDM

Calgary (2.70) - 3 Games: @STL, @COL, SJ

Vancouver (2.76) - 3 Games: @SJ, @LA, @ANH


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rjfisher83 said:

rjfisher83
... @Superchief - I assume you mean the week of Nov. 4th to Nov. 10th. If it's a weekly update league, I would consider it, but only if you can replace your guys with someone that will be more productive.

For example, Kessel is scoring at a 1.2 PPG pace right now. So for the week, Kessel is projected to have 2.292 points (1.2 PPG x 1.91). Obviously he won't score a fraction of a point, it's just math. So if you can find someone that is projected to put up more than 2.292 points for the week, it may be in your best interest to bench Kessel (hard to do, I know) for that other player. Take Dustin Penner, scoring at a 0.8 PPG pace, but Anaheim's multiplier factor for that week is 4.35. So 0.8 x 4.35 gives us 3.48. So theoretically, Penner has a better opportunity to outpoint Kessel from 11/4 to 11/10.

If it's a daily update, start Kessel whenever you can.

Do the same thing math for Wideman and Russell.
November 07, 2013
Votes: +0

Superchief said:

Superchief
Steer Clear Question When you recommend to steer clear of certain teams, does this include the teams top players?
So, for instance, I have Kessel, Wideman, and Russell. SHoudl I sit them all for the week of Mon, Nov 4th to Sun, Nov 19th?
November 04, 2013
Votes: +0
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