suter

 

DobberHockey's Trade Deadline Coverage

 

In the final part of the new series, we’ll take a look at players who could find themselves on a new team come Feb. 27th. TSN has pretty good coverage of the Western Conference teams, but it probably lacks a bit of fantasy analysis, so I’ll borrow some of their thoughts, but add that extra dimension to gives you a clearer picture.

 

Nashville

With roughly six weeks left till the end of the regular season, the Preds are nine points clear of a playoff spot. They’ve never really been big buyers or sellers at the deadline, so look for them to make a minor tweak or two come Feb 27th. Expect them to be small buyers.

 

Possible Movers

Now just because they’ve never made a huge splash at the deadline doesn’t mean that they won’t buck the trend. If they really wanted to make a big splash, they could certainly shock the fantasy hockey world if they decided to move highly-coveted blue-liner Ryan Suter. I wrote a couple of lengthy posts on the forum here and here, so if you have a few minutes definitely take a gander.

 

 

G

A

+/-

PIMs

SOG

PPP

BS

HITs

TkA

GvA

Cap-Hit

Suter

7

28

10

35

100

20

81

32

29

30

$7+ mil

Player X

3

14

-4

12

50

6

70

51

18

44

$4 mil

 

Now, obviously that deal wouldn’t be fair straight up, but what if Player X’s team added some offensive help like Ales Hemsky and Magnus Paajarvi, and the Preds added a first and maybe Matthias Ekholm or Teemu Laakso? Would that be a fair trade?

Potential destination: Edmonton, Tampa Bay or Washington could make sense.

 

Possible Beneficiaries

Suter would definitely be hard to replace, but not impossible. They have plenty of pieces already in place, like Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, who could substitute for the loss of Suter, so it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

 

Phoenix


Much like most of the Western Conference teams, the Yotes are still very much in the playoff hunt and should be buyers at the deadline barring a huge meltdown in the next week.

 

Possible Movers

The Yotes don’t really have very many assets to sell at the deadline, but Taylor Pyatt could potentially draw some interest. His 115 HITs is currently ranked 41st amongst all forwards and his 41-games of playoff experience could also come in handy for a team looking for a veteran presence in the locker room. He’s presently being under-used at the moment while averaging just 12:13 per contest for the Yotes, a warning sign that he might be finding a new home on Feb 27th.

 

Potential destination: Tampa Bay, Florida or Pittsburgh(?) could make sense.

 

David Rundblad has 10 points in 14 contests with the Pirates in the AHL, which shows that he probably doesn’t have much more to prove at the minor league level. If the Phoenix coaching staff has enough faith in the youngster, it could result in one of their well-known, veteran blue-liners, Michal Rozsival or Adrian Aucoin, being moved at the deadline. Aucoin would draw a bit more interest since he contributes in a variety of categories (points, SOG, HITs and BS), but he would also command more of a return as well. Rozsival would probably be a more affordable option for potential suitors to poach.

 

Potential destination: Washington, Winnipeg, Islanders or Pittsburgh could make sense.

 

A third and probably the most interesting candidate might be the Yotes’ captain, Shane Doan. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not 100 percent or even 10 percent certain that he gets moved at the deadline, but the thought has crossed my mind. Doan has spent his entire career with the Jets/Coyotes organization, so I don’t doubt that he could be a career, one-team player, but my main question is whether or not he’ll ever have a chance at winning a cup with Phoenix. The Yotes are in major financial strife, and I don’t know if they would be able to retain Doan’s services when he hits the free agent open market in the off-season. The Red Wings have well over $24 mil in available cap space (if Niklas Lidstrom decides to call it quits after this season). If they offered Doan $6 to 6.5 mil per season for three or four seasons, it may be tempting enough, that he probably wouldn’t be able to refuse. Is Phoenix better off moving him at the deadline and getting at least something in return rather than watching him walk in the off-season for nothing? His 12 points in the last 27 games (0.44 points-per-game), certainly deem him expendable.

 

Potential destination: Detroit, Colorado, Winnipeg, Chicago or Columbus (for Nash?) could make sense.

 

Possible Beneficiaries

If Pyatt goes, it opens up a spot for Patrick O’Sullivan to re-join the big club. M.A. Pouliot or Andy Miele might also get a long look as well. Either way, none of which will probably be of any fantasy relevance.

 

As mentioned above, if Rozsival or Aucoin are moved, then Rundblad should get a quick recall. He might be worth keeping an eye on if he picks up 18+ minutes a game.

 

If Doan is moved, then a huge gaping hole will be left in the top-six. Mikkel Boedker and Lauri Korpikoski could see significant increases in ice-time.

 

San Jose

The Sharks have one of the toughest second half schedules in the league, which means they’ll probably be looking to acquire more depth at the deadline to help lessen the workload of their players heading into the playoffs. Look for them to be buyers at the deadline.

 

Possible Movers

The Sharks don’t have very many pieces to be dealt at the deadline, so don’t expect any large scale changes on the roster front. One interesting rumour that I have read was one that listed Ryane Clowe on the available list, which doesn’t make sense to me because he’s essentially the only real “physical” player in the Sharks top-six. If you look at Joe Thornton (26 HITs), Patrick Marleau (55 HITs), Joe Pavelski (30 HITs), Logan Couture (26 HITs), Martin Havlat (11* HITs), and Ryane Clowe (76* HITs), the latter is the only one that really plays with any physicality. You take that away, and first round matchup against the Hawks or Preds could result in another quick playoff exit by the Sharks.

 

Potential destination: No where, he ain’t moving!

 

*pro-rated current pace

 

Now the RFA class could be the interesting candidates. Jamie McGinn, Benn Ferriero, Andrew Desjardins, Tommy Wingels and Justin Braun are all decent players, but if they can be utilized to land a veteran third/fourth liner in return, you’d have to concede that GM Doug Wilson would be more than happy to pull the trigger.

 

Potential targets: Columbus (Sammy Pahlsson), Buffalo (Paul Gaustad), Washington ( Mike Knuble) or Montreal (Travis Moen).

 

Possible Beneficiaries

The Sharks are looking to acquire new players, so there probably isn’t anyone in their system that would gain significant value from the trade deadline.

 

St. Louis
The Blues are a ridiculous 26-3-4 at home, but just 10-13-3 on the road. They’re firmly entrenched in a playoff position, so they’ll probably be looking to add some veteran presence to help them with some of their road woes, so consider them strong buyers.

 

Possible Movers

A couple of names jump off their roster. First is blue-liner Carlo Colaiacovo. With Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk garnering the bulk of the offense from the backend, it really has left Colaiacovo playing the role of the third wheel. The Blues’ entire defensive unit (Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Colaiacovo, Roman Polak, Barrett Jackman and Kris Russell), have a combined 24 games of playoff experience. That’s certainly an area for improvement if they’re looking for upgrades at the deadline.

 

Potential destination: Philadelphia (for a return of Matt Carle, who has 73 games of playoff experience, plus it saves them about $1.3 mil in cap space).

 

Chris Stewart is having one heck of a terrible season. He posted 23 points in 26 contests when he joined the Blues from the Avs at the trade deadline last campaign, but has only 22 points in 56 contests, all while averaging just 15:58 (14:30 over the last month), per contest this year. He is at his best when he garners plenty of ice-time and has the puck on his stick, but I don’t know if St. Louis is the place to give him that opportunity. A change of scenery would certainly help resurrect his career.

 

Potential destination: Winnipeg (a potential top-line of Stewart, Mark Scheifele and Evander Kane would be monstrous against any opposition), Islanders (lining up alongside John Tavares would be nice), or Tampa Bay (finally giving Steven Stamkos or Vinny Lecavalier a sniping winger), could all make sense.

 

Possible Beneficiaries

If Colaiacovo goes, then Kris Russell could see a large boost in fantasy value, as long as they don’t get an offensive D replacement.

 

If Stewart is moved, then the extra power-play time should filter back towards the rest of the forwards. Andy MacDonald, David Perron, Alex Steen and T.J. Oshie should pick up some of the slack.

 

Vancouver


The Nucks will be battling it out with the Red Wings for first place in the Western Conference, so look for them to be serious buyers at the deadline.

 

Possible Movers

Most of their potential UFAs probably won’t garner that much attention, but Aaron Rome and Alex Sulzer might draw a bit of interest. Vancouver is pretty set with six defenseman (Alex Edler, Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Dan Hamhuis, Keith Ballard and Andrew Alberts), that both Rome and Sulzer could be used as trade chips to help free up some cap space.

 

Potential destination: Any team needing a fifth/sixth defenseman.

 

Keith Ballard could also be an interesting candidate. He’s being grossly under-used in Vancouver (15:33 per contest and 12 seconds on the PP), compared to when he was suiting up for Florida (22:24 and 1:58 on the PP), back in 2009-10. But will a rival GM see beyond the numbers and take a leap of faith on the $4.2 mil blue-liner?

 

Potential destination: Tampa Bay, Florida or New Jersey

 

With the early season acquisition of David Booth, it pretty much sealed Mason Raymond’s fate with the Canucks. Take a look at the table below.

 

Stat

Without Booth in line up

With Booth in line up

GP

18

16

Points

8

6

Points/game

0.44

0.38

SOG

50

23

SOG/game

2.78

1.44

TOI/game

16:31

15:11

PP TOI/game

1:41

0:18

 

At a cap-hit of $2.55 mil, Raymond is still a relatively cheap insurance option for the playoffs in case an injury occurs to the top-six, but you would have to think that if GM Mike Gillis receives a quality offer that significantly improves the team, than he would be more than happy to move Raymond.

 

Potential destination: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Tampa Bay or Islanders.

 

The biggest fish of them all might be goaltender Cory Schneider. He has a career 31-14-3 record along with a very respectable 2.42 GAA and .922 SP in the NHL. They still own a viable backup option in Eddie Lack (14-12-3, 2.38 GAA and .923 SP with the Wolves in the AHL), for next season, so moving Schneider won’t really hurt any long-term plans.

 

Potential destination: There are a couple of decent markets that would make sense. Columbus is definitely one, but 1) I don’t think they have strong enough pieces for a return (unless it’s Rick Nash or Jeff Carter) and 2) I don’t know if the Nucks would want to deal within the same conference which makes Tampa Bay possibly the most viable option.

 

Trade proposal: Raymond, Schneider and Ballard plus a second round draft pick for Dwayne Roloson, Brett Clark and Steve Downie plus a first round draft pick.

 

Results from capgeek’s trade machine, both teams would be under the cap.

 

Positives for Nucks

Positives for Lightning

  • Shed Ballard’s overpriced contract
  • Receive one of the league’s best shot blockers in Clark (138 BS)
  • Get a veteran backup in case Roberto Luongo falters in the playoffs
  • Adds more physicality in the third line with the upgrade of Downie from Raymond. (0.77 HITs more per game)
  • Receives two first round picks, so there’s no pressure to be forced to choose one player over another.
  • Receive a young number one goalie that could potentially win a Vezina down the road.
  • Receive a solid minutes chewer in Ballard.
  • Adds slightly more offense with Raymond than Downie.
  • Gives them four draft picks in the second round (Minnesota via San Jose, Philadelphia, Vancouver and their own).

 

Seems like a win-win situation to me!

 

Possible Beneficiaries

If Rome/Sulzer/Ballard is moved, their replacement(s) would probably be the first in line to gain extra fantasy value, but Chris Tanev could also see a bit more ice-time.

 

If Raymond is moved, his replacement would probably receive the extra time, but Chris Higgins or Jannik Hansen could also gain some extra value.

 

If Schneider is moved, Eddie Lack gains long-term value in keeper leagues.

 

Questions or comments? As always I’ll discuss them in the section below.

 

Should you be so inclined, follow me on Twitter

 


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Comments (4)add comment

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Pengwin Sorry been on camp with the kids so I haven't had a chance to reply with no internet reception up there...

Nashville, I sort of agree and I sort of don't... I think they're still a ways off from really contending in the West. The problem is you can only do so much in the playoffs playing purely defence, I mean you gotta score sometime to win. The thing with the Suter situation is it's about long term viability and maximizing return... The problem at the end of the day is Nashville is a small market team with limited spending limit. They can't be a Nucks, Rangers, Detroit, Pens, Hawks and spend up to the cap, so they have to look at production/price value of each player and they've given Rinne that huge contract that has eaten so much of the cap space already, and they'll have a similar contract with Weber... I honestly don't see any room that they can keep Suter. Suter if he hits open market could easily get 6.5-7 and Nashville can't match that, plus they already have pieces in place, Josi, Ellis, so why not maximize return now and move Suter rather than 1) moving him after the season when the best they can land is a conditional draft pick (no they aren't going to weasel their way like they did with Hamhuis) 2) lose him to free agency for nothing... It just doesn't make sense from a managerial point of view. Unless if making the playoffs is the be all and end all objective of this season...

Looks like you were wrong about Phx not making a deal smilies/wink.gif There isn't a lot of potential UFA in the summer, so I'm expecting the free agent class to probably be paid a bit more than usual. Also Doan is pretty valuable, great two-way guy, leadership galore, plus he doesn't shy away from the physical stuff. Plus you have to take his situation into account too, the reason for his numbers being not as fancy is because he's playing for Tippet in Phoenix. If he goes to Detroit he still has enough offensive game to be a 70+ pointer playing with Datsyuk or Zets... He's not really that over the hill yet. $6 mil is on the higher end, but it's certainly achievable. $4-4.5 I think there would be plenty of teams willing to have Doan for that type of money...

SJ is always looking for faceoff guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see them add another one. Even if all they're doing is 4th line stuff... Getting a vet in there with playoff experience is better than them running with a Ferriero, Desjardins or Wingels who lacks playoff experience and could cost them with "rookie" mistakes.

St. Louis for me it's the experience factor. They have none. They might be fine and dandy now during the regular season, but if they had a 7 game series against the Preds or Hawks I don't know if they have enough experience to get them past the line. Keeping Carlo is fine, but they need to bring someone in to anchor that back line. AP and Shatty are great skill wise, but dunno if they can hold the fort against a Suter and Weber...

Van, once again for me it's about long term viability... I know what they have is a good thing, but sometimes you kinda gotta look at the bigger picture as well. Downie isn't a prize but at least 1 team was interested in him... The thing is in the off-season there might be less potential value. Teams right now probably would be willing to pay through the nose. Off-season, fresh start teams have other means in addressing their problems (draft, trade, UFA). Right now the only option is trade, so the price is probably sky-high if they open up to the option of moving Schneider...

Always good for people to share their thoughts and their opinions, especially when they're different to mine.

Makes me think more about my personal thoughts.
February 24, 2012
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Meh I suppose my streak of loving Ma's articles had to stop at some point.
Overall, I don't agree with much of this one.

Nashville is playing as well as they have ever played. The West finally looks ripe for the picking and I don't see why they should tweak their team. Personally, I think they'll hold Suter. His value is too high and while they could always use more offense, I'm not sure they need more offense at the expense of sacrificing the chemistry they have with Suter on defense. (And I know Poile hasn't made a lot of big moves... but Forsberg... 2007... pretty big.)

Phoenix, meh, I know you have to throw somebody out there, but I don't see them making any moves either being in fringe contention. And Detroit offering a 35-year old Shane Doan $6mil per season... yeesh, gotta ask what time you wrote this? Parise should be available for $7-$8m if they are going to be spending. At his age, Doan is worth $4 to $4.5m per year - no more.

San Jose's top five FOW takers are all 50%+... and with Dominic Moore are they really looking for another center like Pahlsson or Gaustad? I'd have to say they already got their checking line guy. (I'll assume you started writing this pre-Moore trade and just never readjusted)

St.Louis is probably fine holding CarloCo. He'll be a UFA and I think they are fine letting that contract run out without searching for another guy. I really don't even think they'll move Stewart. You just don't EFF with chemistry - and they are rolling as well as any team. Chris Stewart on your 3rd or 4th line... I don't see that as a problem really. Something they can address in the off-season.

And finally, you have Vancouver possibly moving Schneider?! Jeez, I don't know about taking on Roloson, for one. Sounds like an awful move, a 40+yr old that has been garbage this year. Downie's no prize... you've seen his -15 right? Schneider will be probably tendered in the off-season to something that is worth at least the 1st/2nd/3rd range if not the 1st/1st/2nd/3rd. That is enormous value - and I think VAN waits for it. I can't even imagine the backlash on VAN management if Luongo stumbles and they have to go to... Roloson!

Yucky, yucky.
Did not like this one.







February 21, 2012
Votes: +1

steve laidlaw said:

metaldude26
Nashville Forsberg wasn’t a big splash?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
February 21, 2012
Votes: +1

mick said:

hawkdog
trade option I like your trade proposal,
but have put the Tampa positives in with the knucks positives.
February 21, 2012
Votes: +2
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