Datsyuk

 

We’re about a third of the way into the fantasy season and there have certainly been a few busts to start the year. We’ll discuss a few that have caught my attention and see if that’s going to be the expected norm or whether things are going to look brighter moving forward.

 

Pavel Datsyuk

You can’t really call someone who has 20 points in 24 contests a certified bust, but poolies probably expected much more from the 10th overall ranked player in Yahoo drafts. His SOG per contest average has climbed to 3.29 after his opening month average of 2 to start the season, which is a sign in the positive direction. Maaaasquito Buzz: Don’t expect his 63 point pace to continue. Look for 60 points in the remaining 56 contests moving forward.

 

Dion Phaneuf

Phaneuf currently has 13 points in 26 contests which probably isn’t as good as many poolies expected as the second ranked defenseman drafted at the beginning of the year. His current 11.1 percent shooting percentage is almost double of his current career average (6.7), which means that his numbers are inflated as they are. What’s different this year compared to previous years is that he’s always been the “go-to” guy, but that role is being diminished by the inclusion of Jay Bouwmeester and Robyn Regher in the Flames line up. Phaneuf’s SOG per contest average has also completely plummeted. Last season he had a 3.46 average compared to this year’s dismal 2.08. If he only tallied 47 points last season, it’s kind of unreasonable to expect him to tally more points by firing 40 percent less. Maaaasquito Buzz: Don’t expect anything more than 45 point this year, so probably between 25-30 points in the remaining 56 contests.

 

Martin Havlat

Band-Aid boy Havlat is back as he’s dealing with a hamstring (groin!) problem. Even before the injury he was on a dismal 0.42 point-per-game pace, which probably puts him squarely in the bust category. The main difference from last year compared to this year is that he had the protection of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in Chicago. This year he’s drawing all of the attention from the opposition’s top checking lines, which probably will 1) cause him to be injured more frequently or 2) dramatically hurt his fantasy production. It appears that both are occurring at the moment. Maaaasquito Buzz: I don’t quite know about his injury status, so I can’t give you a firm number for expected points for the rest of the season, but I’ll offer a 0.60 point-per-game projection in the remaining contests when he returns.

 

David Backes

A week ago, people were selling Backes as if it was the lone cure to the Swine Flu, but with six points in the last four contests, it appears that move might have been premature. Last year, Backes started the season with eight points in the first 23 contests, so his 10 points in 25 probably actually is a slight upgrade over last year. In the last three contests, Backes has spent 57.49 percent of his overall ice-time alongside Paul Kariya and T.J. Oshie, which probably is the main reason why his points are improving. Maaaasquito Buzz: Backes won’t put up a 54 point season like he did last year because the Blues have Kariya and Keith Tkachuk healthy this year, which will put a firm limit on Backes’ ice-time/production for the duration of the fantasy season. I wouldn’t expect anything more than 30 points in the remaining 57 contests from the Minnesota native.

 

Nicklas Lidstrom

It’s been a while since we last saw Lidstrom this unproductive for fantasy hockey purposes. He’s on pace to finish the season with only 25 points, which probably is unfathomable for a player of his calibre. His SOG per contest average is still at a pretty reasonable 2.27, which is at least one positive you could turn towards if you are a Lidstrom owner. Maaaasquito Buzz: Don’t expect anything near the 59+ point mark that he has tallied for the past four consecutive seasons. Look at the 38-point that he achieved in the 2003-04 season as a real possibility for this year.

 

Brad Boyes

Brad Boyes has started the season on a 0.6 point-per-game pace, which is probably not the pace that owners are expecting from the seventh year veteran, especially considering he had back-to-back seasons of 65+ points. The SOG and ice-time are there, but similar to Backes, the return of Kariya and Tkachuk has really flattened out the fantasy production in St. Louis. Maaaasquito Buzz: I don’t really see any of the Blues being that productive fantasy-wise this season. You’ll probably see all eight of the top Blues’ forwards tally between the 50-65 point marks.

 

Brian Rafalski

Along the same lines as Lidstrom, Rafalski hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard.  He has 12 points in 25 contests, and is currently riding a five-game pointless drought. On a positive note, he is on pace for 146 SOG, which probably should help soften the blow if you are a Rafalski-owner. Much like Lidstrom, I wouldn’t expect Rafalski to match any of the numbers that he’s put up in the last three seasons. Maaaasquito Buzz: Look for him to finish with 28 points in the remaining 57 contests, anything more will be a bonus.

 

Joffrey Lupul

You can’t really fault Lupul for his slow start to this season because he is dealing with back spasms. I usually don’t want list players who are/were dealing with injuries as bust candidates because I think it’s a bit unfair, but judging Lupul on his performance in the first 20 games of the season, you’d probably have to give him a D. The goals scored per contest still remains pretty decent as well as the SOG average, which is why I peg Lupul to be a great buy-low candidate at the moment. Maaaasquito Buzz: Look for Loops to return to the Anaheim line up late next week and tally around 40 points in the remaining 52 contests.

 

Patrick O’Sullivan

O’Sully had big expectations heading into this fantasy season, but he really hasn’t flourished the way that I thought he would in the first 27 contests. His 2.85 SOG per contest average is still conducive for fantasy purposes, but his 39 point pace probably isn’t. Like the old adage goes, the more you shoot, eventually you’ll score. With Ales Hemsky out of the line up for the remainder of the season, look for Pat Quinn to give Patty an extra long look for the duration of the campaign. Maaaasquito Buzz: Buy now and look for 45 points in the remaining 55 contests for the fourth year winger.

 

Shawn Horcoff

For a player to have 11 points in 23 contests, you might just mosey along and say ho-hum, but can you say that when he’s making $5.5 million this season? Horcoff did have some chemistry playing alongside Ales Hemsky, but unfortunately the later is side-lined for the rest of the season. Result of Horcoff’s fantasy value? (cue sound of dropping bomb + explosion sound) Maaaasquito Buzz: If you are a Horcoff owner, drop now!

 

Martin Erat

Erat has started the year with nine points in the first 23 contests, which pro-rates to a 28 point pace. Compare that to his five consecutive seasons of near 50 point totals, the start of this campaign has certainly been a disappointment. In his career, Erat has tallied at a 0.67 point-per-game pace between January and March. You can thank me for doing the homework for you, as the Preds have 37 contests in those three months, which should give him 24 points during that span. If he stays on course with his career point averages in December and April that would result in 32 points in the remaining 56 games. Maaaasquito Buzz: That’s probably a bare minimum for Erat, I’d probably look for him to reach the 50 point plateau for a six consecutive season. He’s only 10 percent owned in Yahoo leagues, so you might want to add away on the Czech.

 

Peter Mueller

You’ve probably read Dobber’s column on him a few weeks back, so I’m not going to beat a dead horse. He’s probably the biggest bust that fantasy poolies have invested in this season. With four points in the first 24 contests, it seems that all hope might be lost. What you also should keep in mind is that Mueller did start his rookie season with 11 points in 22 contests, and then busted out for 36 in the final 55 games. You need to recognize that the potential is there. Maaaasquito Buzz: If there is ever a time to buy-low on Mueller, now’s probably the time. If it’s not going to cost you anything to acquire Mueller you might want to roll the dice to see if you can pick up a sleeper candidate.

 

Steve Mason

If there is an award for the biggest bust between the pipes to start the year, it has to certainly belong to Mase. Mason sports a 9-6-4 record along with an underachieving 3.38 GAA and .892 save percentage. It’s definitely not what fantasy owners expected from last season’s Calder winner. If you look at the overall numbers, they’re actually quite mediocre, but if you throw out the two blowout performances against the Rangers and the Red Wings, he actually has a .936 save percentage and a 2.07 GAA along with a 3-1-3 record in those seven contests. Currently, the Blue Jackets possess the third-worst team defense rating by giving up an average of 3.38 goals per contest. Face it a Ken Hitchcock coached team won’t finish that low in the standings, which means that Columbus should be in store for one hell of a ride from here on out. Maaaasquito Buzz: You just need to be aware of which match ups are favourable to Mase, and which aren’t. If you can handle a blip every once in awhile, his baseline stats will remain relatively unvaried. So if you are looking for some help between the pipes, you might want to see if the Mason owner in your league is getting fed up.

 

Questions or comments? Like always I’ll be ready and willing to discuss them with you in the comments section below. We’ll see you here back again next week.

 


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Comments (21)add comment

Russ said:

The Comish
... Absolutely the best title for an article Ryan! I'll be following suit with the Eastern Conference on Thursday. You may see Lecavalier, Spezza and/or Vanek's names mentioned.
December 02, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Lenethen said:

DarthVain
Hooray for me I have O'Sullivan, Vanek, and Spezza... oh the joy!
December 02, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Spezza, Lecavalier, and Vanek

Sorry at Dobber, I take care of the Western Conference, and Russ Miller takes care of the East. So I didn't want to step on his toes on the players that he's responsible for.

In case people are wondering wheres the rest of the "busts".
December 02, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Ruutu

I honestly just pulled names outta my head, and didn't do any research into it.

I looked at what players had trade value so that the Canes could get something back in return, and Ruutu's name stuck into my head.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that with or without Ruutu I don't think they're a contending team. So if keeping Ruutu means that they finish 24th in the league compared to 30th, the only thing that it jeopardizes is their future... At least if they can finish 30th they'd have a shot at Hall or Seguin, so there's upside for the future. If they keep on trying for the playoffs they'll just be stuck in the same position as they always are with either a mid-round draft pick or a first round exit, which leaves them in the same position for next year.

My thoughts are if you aren't contending rebuild the right way!!! (like Pits, Wsh, Chi, LA)
December 02, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Throwing out bad games

Also I didn't ignore your comments, I was in the process of typing them up while you posted. I didn't want to half ass it and just throw in a few words here or there. I really wanted to justify my post and if you haven't read it. It's right above yours...

Also I'm not trying to analyze Mason's numbers on a statistical level. What I'm trying to do is to establish a point that Mason's numbers in general aren't that bad despite his poor overall stats.

What's causing his numbers to look so poorly on an overall level is due to the blips that is caused by the occasional 6 GA game, or the 8 GA game. If you look at the rest of the games, 4 out of 5 his sv% and GAA is actually pretty decent. It's not a game by game basis that he's allowing 3+ goals and stopping less than 90% of the shots that he's faced. There's valleys and peaks with his production or lack there of, and not a consistent day in day out poor effort across the board.

That's the only point that I wanted to establish with Mason.
December 02, 2009
Votes: +0

Ian a.k.a ziggy said:

Nifty Mittens
... You other poolies can't deny
That when a super-star starts the season with itty bitty stats
And a round thing ("0" pts) in your face
You get sprung
December 01, 2009
Votes: +1

adam said:

Seeds of Grapes
... Not on the list but should be:

Spezza
Lecavalier
Vanek
December 01, 2009
Votes: +1

Repent Tokyo said:

repenttokyo
... Sorry Ryan - but there is no way that someone like Ruutu gets dealt at the deadline after being re-signed so recently. Corvo and Whitney are possibles, but Ruutu is off the table.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: SOG vs Point Production correlation

There isn't a 100% direct correlation as you pointed out, but there is a pretty close correlation.

Face it, if a player shoots 10 times, he has 10 chances to put the puck in the net. If he shoots once, he has one chance. You can't tell me that a person who shoots once will have a higher chance of scoring more points than a person that shoots ten times... that's my argument.

Of course there are numerous outside factors that play a role in point production. Injuries, player's mindset, the system that the coach imploys, ice-time, their line mates, 4th year breakouts... but a lot of those factors you can't control, SOG is probably the easiest indicator to see how productive a player is, but not the ONLY factor.

Phaneuf was dealing with an injury last season, so even though he had more SOG, his point totals were hampered because of it.

Enstrom if you look at the seasonal stats he had 10 points in the first 43 games (because of the inclusion of Schneider and Bogo) and 22 in the final 34 (when he was given the green light)... So if you compared his 2nd half numbers to this year's numbers the stats are very similar. Another factor, is that the Thrashers have gotten much better as a team as well. In 2007-08 ATL was 22nd ranked in terms of offense, this year they're 1st... So Enstrom's point totals are also linked to the team around him getting better as well.

With Getzlaf, if you look at the overall goals and SOG they have remained pretty consistent 25,24,25. It's the assists that really have fluctuated 33,58,66... Does SOG have anything to do with it? perhaps, but is it the lone factor no...

Same could be said for Datsyuk and how the team around him played a role in his point production...

Maybe if we summed it up by saying, although there are many factors that influence point production, SOG is probably the easiest quantifiable indicator to indicate how productive a player is. Obviously there are going to be exceptions, but generally speaking that fits the mould for 90% of the players in fantasy hockey so we'll keep it at that.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

SuperOne said:

SuperOne
... Travis, I am not sure if your comment had anything to do with what I said....if it did, I think you missed my points. What did Ryan GENERALLY say about SOG that you agree with? If you are related him, well we're not all privy to your conversations and what you are referring to. Ryan did not generally say anything about SOG in this article, he was using specific examples. And I never said he was wrong.


Also, be careful with "throwing out" bad games for the purpose of statistical analysis. If you are not going to bother with MY opinions Ryan, ask Dobber he knows about advanced statistical analysis. Throwing out the worst games for observational purposes is valid but if you are going to throw out the worst games games for final conclusive analysis then an equal number of best games have to be removed or the analysis can be biased and/or flawed....massaged/manipulated to make things look a certain way. Even throwing out x number of bad games and an equal number of good games is slightly not so proper.

Results are what they are, they can't be changed. Throw out Game 7 of last year's Stanley Cup Final and all of a sudden the Red Wings had a successful playoff run, tied as co-champion. Throw out Datsyuk's best game of the playoffs and I finish tied for second in my playoff pool instead of tied for 1st. Throw out Zetterberg's best game and I finish in third.

If an athlete performed a certain way, good or bad, that was performance was earned.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Phaneuf vs Chara

Keeper leagues are honestly hard to tell. I think Phaneuf has a much higher long term potential than Chara only because of his age (24 vs 32).

If you are in contention for this or next year, I'd make the trade, but if you are rebuilding for the long term, keep Phaneuf.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Whitney

I've been a fan of Whitney for the last couple of years, just cause he's always so under the radar and reliable. But this year it seems that they would be better off selling off pieces and rebuilding.

The way I see it is that if they keep all the oldies they'll keep destroying their future. They ruin their chances of getting a breakout player, and they'll either just make the playoffs (and be booted out in the first round) or just miss it...

I really do see them dealing pieces like Ruutu, Whitney, Corvo at the deadline, but if they remain a Cane, their value probably isn't going to be ideal.

O'Sully has higher upside, the Oilers really have nothing much to play for, and Hemsky is out, which means that they'll probably try to give the younger kids a bit more wiggle room to determine their future. That plus O'Sully is in his magical 4th year, but tends to warrant a breakout.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
... RE: Mason

Sorry I didn't clarify
Seven of his last nine contests... taking out the NYR and Detroit game.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Chris Lavell said:

ChrisLav
Wondering... If you look at the overall numbers, they’re actually quite mediocre, but if you throw out the two blowout performances against the Rangers and the Red Wings, he actually has a .936 save percentage and a 2.07 GAA along with a 3-1-3 record in those seven contests

What seven contests does this refer to?
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Travis Ma said:

dstarsboy
I like SOG I agree with Ryan about SOG.

If you take all of the players on a team and sort them by SOG, you will typically get the most fantasy relevant players in the top 5. There are some anomalies of course. Look at Jason Blake and Brown in LA, those guys are SOG psychos and can barely maintain fantasy worthiness.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Repent Tokyo said:

repenttokyo
... erik johnson is well on his way to being a productive member of the Blues this season from a fantasy perspective.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Jake said:

smack
Title I just love the title!!! smilies/grin.gif
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

SuperOne said:

SuperOne
... Oops, sorry about the formatting there, I did put spaces.

Getzlaf
2006-07, ANH, 82, 25, 33, 58, 203shots (2.47 per game)
2007-08, ANH, 77, 24, 58, 82, 185shots (2.4 per game)

Datsyuk
2003-04, DET, 75, 30, 38, 68, 136shots
2005-06, DET, 75, 28, 59, 87, 146shots
2006-07, DET, 79, 27, 60, 87, 207shots
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

SuperOne said:

SuperOne
... SOG....seems like that stat is being overrated a bit as it seems like it is being made out to be a direct correlation.

Phanuef, you argue his points are dropping at least in part to shots on goal....yet:
07-08: 263 shots, 60 points
08-09: 277 shots, 47 points?

He was still the go to guy last season, had MORE shots than the previous season yet his production dropped by a significant 13 points?

Another example....Enstrom

07-08: 105 shots, 38 points
08-09: 86 shots, 32 points
(on pace) 09-10: 112 shots, 64 points

Granted there is some correlation here but are you telling me he is on pace to shatter his career high in points by 26 because of those extra 7 shots on goal he is on pace for compared to 07-08?

Getzlaf
2006-07ANH82253358203shots (2.47 per game)
2007-08ANH77245882185shots (2.4 per game)

He shattered his career high in points by 34! And he actually took slightly less shots per game than the previous season.


Okay I decided to even look at Datsyuk, look at this beautiful example....

2003-04DET75303868 136shots
2005-06DET75285987 146shots
2006-07DET79276087 207shots

ONLY ten more shots on net from 03-04 to 05-06, yet he scored 19 more points....then 61 more shots on net, and he scores the exact same number of points as the previous season!


Look, I am not making a huge deal out of it and I'm not saying you are wrong or anything like that. I too have used shots on goal in analysis, but I guess I'm saying it's not a perfectly linear relationship and to be aware of other factors, as I'm sure you already are.

Sometimes less shots on goal means more assists.
December 01, 2009
Votes: +0

Mike Colligan said:

MJColligan
... Would you trade Phaneuf for Chara in a keeper league? G, A, PIM, +/-, PPP, SHP are categories.
December 01, 2009 | url
Votes: +0

Josh said:

kooter109
... I have Datsyuk, and I HAD Lidstrom. Definitely busting. But I do see Datsyuk picking it up.
What do you think of Ray Whitney and the Canes? I actualy picked up Whitney for O'Sully off the wire - I figure both are slumping and I like Whitney better. And I also have Ward, so I'm hoping the whole team turns it around.
What do you think?
December 01, 2009
Votes: +1
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