miller

 

The ranking reflects the statistics accrued through Nov 13th and does not compensate for games missed. So although somebody like Malkin is projected for large numbers, his injury affected his ranking.

 

I decided to change pace slightly this month because of the abundance of new names on this chart. I have taken the consensus pre-season projections I collected (6 fantasy sources) and offered a comparison to where their 2010 statistics have projected them forward. Will they be able to hold on? Or are they one-hit wonders?

 

The big news is that Ryan Miller has finally unseated Alexander Ovechkin, but in order to remain on the top, Miller will likely need to go 52-10-5 with a sub 2.00 GAA and 10+ shutouts. Let’s say it is highly unlikely, so Miller better enjoy his one month reign.

 

Onto the list, and remember these rankings are not my opinion, they are based on statistics and that each category is weighted equally.

 

 

1. Ryan Miller, BUF
2009 Pre-season projection – 36-24-7   2.55 GAA   0.920 SV%   5 SO
2009 Stats projected – 52-10-5    1.82 GAA   0.938 SV%   10 SO

The odds of Miller maintaining this pace is about the same as the city of Buffalo having a fire free week. Zero.

2. Alex Ovechkin, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 61G, 53A, 113 PTS, +13, 65 PIM, 49 PPP, 521 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 76G, 49A, 125 PTS, +43, 65 PIM, 43 PPP, 467 SOG

Ovechkin would be number one if not for his injury. His projected totals are over 75 games and although gawdy are realistic in comparison to Miller’s.

3. Evgeni Nabokov, SJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 42-15-8   2.41 GAA   0.910 SV%   6 SO
2009 Stats projected – 40-11-11    2.12 GAA   0.927 SV%   7 SO

I am not a Nabokov fan, I am convinced that if Greiss was in goal, that he would be pulling a Clemmenson, but Nabby plays on the Sharks and with that will put up huge numbers.

4. Sidney Crosby, PIT
2009 Pre-season projection – 38G, 72A, 110 PTS, +15, 78 PIM, 37 PPP, 266 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 41G, 32A, 74 PTS, +23, 141 PIM, 14 PPP, 292 SOG

I was shocked to see Crosby at 4. A slow start and on pace for a career low in points is offset by a projected 141 PIM!!! AND career best 292 SOG.

5. Anze Kopitar, LA
2009 Pre-season projection – 32G, 43A, 75 PTS, -8, 30 PIM, 30 PPP, 215 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 60G, 69A, 129 PTS, +39, 26 PIM, 52 PPP, 237 SOG

Did anybody see this coming? Kopitar’s first quarter has not only made him a star, but he has dragged Ryan Smyth out of the grave.  

6. Ryan Smyth, LA
2009 Pre-season projection – 28G, 31A, 59 PTS, -10, 59 PIM, 22 PPP, 229 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 39G, 56A, 95 PTS, +35, 35 PIM, 39 PPP, 250 SOG

Just goes to show that a corpse can score if placed with the proper linemates.

7. Zach Parise, NJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 40G, 45A, 85 PTS, +23, 25 PIM, 32 PPP, 343 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 41G, 56A, 97 PTS, +36, 21 PIM, 36 PPP, 369 SOG

So much for Lemaire stifling Parise’s offense. This kid is underrated at an increasingly rare position.

8. Dustin Penner, EDM
2009 Pre-season projection – N/A
2009 Stats projected – 47G, 47A, 94 PTS, +39, 17 PIM, 35 PPP, 255 SOG

Would anybody be surprised if Penner finished with 60 pts? I wouldn’t, but Quinn’s teams have a history of scoring, so Penner could remain productive and break 75 pts.

9. Dany Heatley, SJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 44G, 40A, 84 PTS, +2, 74 PIM, 30 PPP, 257 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 47G, 39A, 86 PTS, +9, 78 PIM, 43 PPP, 233 SOG

If self absorption was a category, Heatley would be number one.

10. Tim Thomas/Claude Julien, BOS
2009 Pre-season projection – 37-14-7   2.23 GAA   0.930 SV%   5 SO
2009 Stats projected – 22-27-9   2.05 GAA   0.927 SV%   13 SO

From now on I am going to reference Tim Thomas as Tim Thomas/Claude Julien. Julien really should have the Vezina on HIS mantle.

11. Marian Gaborik, NYR
2009 Pre-season projection – 40G, 38A, 78 PTS, +4, 40 PIM, 28 PPP, 267 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 60G, 50A, 110 PTS, +30, 20 PIM, 40 PPP, 295 SOG

The inspiration for the Dirk Diggler All-Stars (I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 ft. pole). I don’t care if he gets 90 goals, I will never own this band aid boy.

12. Ilya Bryzgalov/Dave Tippet, PHO
2009 Pre-season projection – 27-31-5   2.79 GAA   0.910 SV%  2 SO
2009 Stats projected – 38-25-0   2.05 GAA   0.920 SV%   13 SO

Bryzgalov is like a retired porn star, he has drastically reduced the rubber he faces nightly. Under Gretzky, Bryzgalov was facing an average of 32 shots per night, under Tippet, 26. Over a 65 start season that equates to almost 400 shots. No, he didn’t just get better, Gretzky coached defense like he played it.


13. Craig Anderson, COL
2009 Pre-season projection – 22-28-7   2.70 GAA   0.920 SV%   2 SO
2009 Stats projected – 39-13-10    2.29 GAA   0.930 SV%   6 SO

I was not a big Anderson believer. Looking at his shot charts this year, I am slowly coming around. If he does this for another 20 games, I am drinking the kool-aid.

14. Alexander Semin, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 36G, 41A, 77 PTS, +12, 75 PIM, 36 PPP, 246 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 46G, 41A, 87 PTS, +10, 82 PIM, 36 PPP, 308 SOG

Semin would have been in the top 10 last season if he stayed healthy, with Semin, that is a IF. I probably should have projected his numbers over 65 games.

15. A. Niittymaki, TB
2009 Pre-season projection – N/A
2009 Stats projected – 22-5-9    2.05 GAA   0.937 SV%   0 SO

Enjoy it will it lasts, Niittymaki is not finishing with a .700 Winning percentage.

16. Patrick Marleau, SJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 33G, 34A, 67 PTS, +11, 25 PIM, 23 PPP, 224 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 47G, 52A, 99 PTS, +22, 9 PIM, 35 PPP, 250 SOG

Could Ron Wilson have been wrong? Nah, impossible.

17. Corey Perry, ANH
2009 Pre-season projection – 36G, 43A, 79 PTS, +10, 108 PIM, 31 PPP, 283 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 62G, 41A, 103 PTS, +15, 103 PIM, 21 PPP, 267 SOG

WOW, just wow.

18. Mike Richards, PHI
2009 Pre-season projection – 30G, 48A, 78 PTS, +17, 63 PIM, 30 PPP, 219 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 47G, 41A, 88 PTS, EVEN, 146 PIM, 47 PPP, 299 SOG

Dirty players who can score are great fantasy investments.

19. Rick Nash, CLS
2009 Pre-season projection – 45G, 41A, 86 PTS, +8, 63 PIM, 31 PPP, 318 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 58G, 53A, 111 PTS, -34, 39 PIM, 34 PPP, 318 SOG

Nash is the example of why you remain patient with power forwards.

20. Ray Emery, PHI
2009 Pre-season projection – 34-18-8   2.52 GAA   0.910 SV%   4 SO
2009 Stats projected – 43-13-4    2.18 GAA   0.924 SV%   4 SO

Does anybody really believe that if Emery played for Ottawa still that he would be on pace for 43 wins and a 2.18 GAA and a .924 SV%? Philly fans deep down know how this is going to end.

21. Brad Richards, DAL
2009 Pre-season projection – 28G, 38A, 66 PTS, +2, 9 PIM, 23 PPP, 273 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 33G, 77A, 110 PTS, +27, 11 PIM, 44 PPP, 306 SOG

Brad Richards, welcome back.

22. Martin Brodeur, NJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 40-25-6   2.39 GAA   0.910 SV%   7 SO
2009 Stats projected – 52-19-0   2.17 GAA   0.920 SV%   5 SO

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/hockey/story/1323568.html  Shocking news.

23. Mike Cammalleri, MON
2009 Pre-season projection – 36G, 39A, 75 PTS, +3, 43 PIM, 15 PPP, 256 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 32G, 32A, 64 PTS, +23, 46 PIM, 31 PPP, 287 SOG

After watching Cammalleri for 20 games, I have come to the realization that on Mike Cammalleri bobblehead night, the dolls will be made to scale. Dude’s head is HUGE!

24. Dustin Brown, LA
2009 Pre-season projection – 30G, 32A, 62 PTS, -12, 69 PIM, 18 PPP, 260 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 26G, 47A, 73 PTS, -4, 26 PIM, 35 PPP, 272 SOG

His PIMs are down, but Kopitar is up.

25. Patrick Sharp, CHI
2009 Pre-season projection – 30G, 27A, 57 PTS, +13, 49 PIM, 23 PPP, 188 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 29G, 43A, 72 PTS, +29, 10 PIM, 24 PPP, 299 SOG

If I told you that a Blackhawk had cracked the top 25, hands up if your answer was Patrick Sharp?

26. Dan Boyle, SJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 16G, 42A, 58 PTS, +7, 54 PIM, 35 PPP, 220 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 17G, 60A, 76 PTS, +26, 52 PIM, 39 PPP, 199 SOG

Boyle is one of my favourites. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why.

27. Jeff Carter, PHI
2009 Pre-season projection – 42G, 37A, 79 PTS, +17, 65 PIM, 35 PPP, 331 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 35G, 53A, 88 PTS, -6, 35 PIM, 35 PPP, 381 SOG

Carter is on pace for a career best in points, but has plummeted down the list. It just goes to show how badly poor production in a couple of categories can damage your ranking.

28. Mike Green, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 28G, 44A, 72 PTS, +17, 61 PIM, 42 PPP, 215 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 10G, 63A, 73 PTS, +14, 68 PIM, 29 PPP, 256 SOG

So far in 2009 Mike Green has answered the question of whether last season was an outlier.

29. Steven Stamkos, TB
2009 Pre-season projection – 31G, 33A, 64 PTS, -1, 43 PIM, 24 PPP, 267 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 66G, 27A, 93 PTS, +22, 44 PIM, 44 PPP, 290 SOG

What a difference a year makes. Just one more example of why it pays to be patient.

30. M. Samuelsson, VAN
2009 Pre-season projection – 20G, 22A, 42 PTS, +6, 47 PIM, 17 PPP, 290 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 35G, 26A, 61 PTS, -9, 43 PIM, 30 PPP, 268 SOG

Detroit could use him right about now.

31. Brenden Morrow, DAL
2009 Pre-season projection – 29G, 38A, 67 PTS, +14, 97 PIM, 21 PPP, 178 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 34G, 34A, 68 PTS, -5, 106 PIM, 29 PPP, 241 SOG

As a Habs fan, all I can say is “you are welcome Brenden”, I hope you enjoy playing with Ribeiro, because Janne Niinima is working out great in Montreal.

32. David Clarkson, NJ
2009 Pre-season projection – 15G, 15A, 30 PTS, +4, 174 PIM, 9 PPP, 195 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 26G, 41A, 67 PTS, +10, 159 PIM, 26 PPP, 220 SOG

Either A. The fantasy community was WAY OFF on Clarkson, or B. He is about to crash down to earth faster than Kirstie Alley doing jumping jacks.

33. H. Zetterberg, DET
2009 Pre-season projection – 36G, 46A, 82 PTS, +19, 33 PIM, 33 PPP, 309 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 21G, 56A, 77 PTS, +15, 10 PIM, 26 PPP, 318 SOG

Lil Z continues to be one Grabovski-like temper tantrum from the roto elite. I am not holding my breath.

34. Zdeno Chara, BOS
2009 Pre-season projection – 19G, 32A, 51 PTS, +23, 99 PIM, 26 PPP, 212 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 5G, 39A, 29 PTS, +29, 174 PIM, 24 PPP, 193 SOG

Is there anyway we can combine Big Z and Little Z? I think Zedenrik Charaberg would be an unstoppable force and probably be the only player to knock Ovechkin off the roto pedestal. Even if Zetterberg could pilfer half of Chara’s PIMs he would be in business.

35. Paul Stastny, COL
2009 Pre-season projection – 27G, 47A, 74 PTS, EVEN, 35 PIM, 26 PPP, 210 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 17G, 60A, 77 PTS, +30, 60 PIM, 22 PPP, 190 SOG

Stastny has returned from injury and has not skipped a beat. It will be interesting to see if he crashes and burns like the Avs are destined to in the second half.

36. Mikko Koivu, MIN
2009 Pre-season projection – 23G, 51A, 74 PTS, +5, 61 PIM, 29 PPP, 233 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 24G, 53A, 00 PTS, -39, 48 PIM, 43 PPP, 289 SOG

Mikko Koivu -39? I think that is a giant double we’re number 1 to Jacques Lemaire.

37. N. Backstrom, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 24G, 71A, 95 PTS, +15, 48 PIM, 45 PPP, 167 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 18G, 82A, 100 PTS, +23, 27 PIM, 41 PPP, 205 SOG

Get well soon Ovie.

38. Ryan Kesler, VAN
2009 Pre-season projection – 25G, 33A, 58 PTS, +5, 59 PIM, 19 PPP, 166 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 22G, 52A, 74 PTS, EVEN, 52 PIM, 30 PPP, 220 SOG

I guess it wasn’t Sundin after all.

39. Brian Gionta, MON
2009 Pre-season projection – 27G, 38A, 65 PTS, +6, 37 PIM, 26 PPP, 262 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 32G, 18A, 50 PTS, +9, 36 PIM, 14 PPP, 292 SOG

If Brian Gionta never pots 40+ again, it will not be because of him, it will be because the $7 Million dollar man sucks.

40. Mike Knuble, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 26G, 25A, 51 PTS, +12, 64 PIM, 22 PPP, 205 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 23G, 46A, 69 PTS, +46, 82 PIM, 14 PPP, 191 SOG

Boring fantasy pick that always seems to produce.

41. A. Burrows, VAN
2009 Pre-season projection – 24G, 23A, 47 PTS, +17, 161 PIM, 3 PPP, 178 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 17G, 30A, 47 PTS, +4, 112 PIM, 9 PPP, 207 SOG

The assumption before the season was that Burrows owed much of his success to the Sedins. With over 75% of his points tallied with one of the Sedin’s on the ice, the assumption has yet to be proven false.

42. Chris Kunitz, PIT
2009 Pre-season projection – 26G, 32A, 58 PTS, +9, 69 PIM, 18 PPP, 183 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 14G, 48A, 62 PTS, +5, 114 PIM, 9 PPP, 219 SOG

When Crosby wakes up, Kunitz may find himself a lot higher.

43. Evgeni Malkin, PIT
2009 Pre-season projection – 42G, 71A, 113 PTS, +15, 74 PIM, 39 PPP, 294 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 27G, 68A, 95 PTS, +7, 123 PIM, 55 PPP, 308 SOG

Remember, this list is based on the results through mid November. Malkin only played 12 games and that is reflected in this list.

44. Bobby Ryan, ANH
2009 Pre-season projection – 36G, 36A, 72 PTS, +16, 57 PIM, 13 PPP, 246 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 31G, 26A, 57 PTS, +10, 72 PIM, 15 PPP, 282 SOG

The Anaheim Ducks resemble a Dane Cook concert. They only have one good line.

45. Brooks Laich, WAS
2009 Pre-season projection – 23G, 30A, 53 PTS, +5, 34 PIM, 26 PPP, 194 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 32G, 50A, 82 PTS, EVEN, 18 PIM, 32 PPP, 241 SOG

How many Capitals are going to make this list? You would assume that with all that scoring, if they played without a goalie they would be in first. Nevermind, they essentially do.

46. Ales Hemsky, EDM
2009 Pre-season projection – 25G, 46A, 71 PTS, +2, 34 PIM, 31 PPP, 181 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 21G, 67A, 88 PTS, +21, 41 PIM, 36 PPP, 246 SOG

I like the floating Hemsky much better than the defensively responsible one.

47. Jarome Iginla, CGY
2009 Pre-season projection – 41G, 47A, 88 PTS, +11, 60 PIM, 31 PPP, 318 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 46G, 31A, 77 PTS, +10, 103 PIM, 26 PPP, 220 SOG

The PIMs are BACK! Now all he needs to do is get back to the 90 pt level.

48. Patrick Kane, CHI
2009 Pre-season projection – 29G, 52A, 81 PTS, +12, 47 PIM, 27 PPP, 234 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 24G, 58A, 82 PTS, +19, 48 PIM, 14 PPP, 241 SOG

Got to hand it to the pre-season prognosticators on this one.

49. Kyle Okposo, NYI
2009 Pre-season projection – 26G, 30A, 56 PTS, -1, 55 PIM, 20 PPP, 213 SOG
2009 Stats projected – 14G, 34A, 48 PTS, EVEN, 58 PIM, 29 PPP, 265 SOG

Are things really beginning to turn on Long Island?

50. Matt Moulson, NYI
2009 Pre-season projection – WHO?
2009 Stats projected –36, 27A, 63 PTS, +18, 27 PIM, 23 PPP, 241 SOG

One question. Is this the Canadian way to spell Molson? Can he do us a favoUr and remove the U?

 

51. V. Lecavalier, TB

52. Milan Hejduk, COL

53. Kris Versteeg, CHI

54.Ales Kotalik, NYR

55. Vaclav Prospal, NYR

56. Henrik Sedin, VAN

57. Chris Pronger, PHI

58. Ryane Clowe, SJ

59. John Tavares, NYI

60. James Neal, DAL

61. Rene Bourque, CGY

62. Joe Thornton, SJ

63. Shane Doan, PHO

64. Patric Hornqvist, NSH

65. Adrian Aucoin, PHO

66. A. Ponikarovsky, TOR

67. Marty Turco, DAL

68. Martin St. Louis, TB

69. C. Ehrhoff, VAN

70. Tomas Plekanec, MON

71. Bill Guerin, PIT

72. Loui Eriksson, DAL

73. Radim Vrbata, PHO

74. Kevin Bieksa, VAN

75. Ryan Callahan, NYR

76. Travis Zajac, NJ

77. P. O'Sullivan, EDM

78. Ryan Malone, TB

79. Drew Doughty, LA

80. Alexander Frolov, LA

81. Jason Blake, TOR

82. Mason Raymond, VAN

83. Kyle Quincey, COL

84. Ed Jovanovski, PHO

85. Tim Connolly, BUF

86. Mike Fisher, OTT

87. Jarret Stoll, LA

88. Ryan Getzlaf, ANH

89. J. Langenbrunner, NJ

90. Scott Gomez, MON

91. Jason Chimera, CLS

92. Mike Ribeiro, DAL

93. Dustin Byfuglien, CHI

94. Wojtek Wolski, COL

95. Lee Stempniak, TOR

96. Marek Zidlicky, MIN

97. D. Alfredsson, OTT

98. Todd Bertuzzi, DET

99. David Perron, STL

100. Scott Hartnell, PHI

 


Write comment
Comments (8)add comment

Chris Boyle said:

cboyle55
The order Is based upon the actual statistical ranking through mid November.

Every category is equal, so if a player has 25 points but is -9, his ranking will be dramatically affected in a roto pool.

The reason for the pre-season projection AND the forward projection was to establish that with all the new faces that they are unlikely to be on this list moving forward because of the ridiculous pace they are on and the expectation in the pre-season. Will Brad Richards finish with 110 pts? Or Niittymaki with a 22-5-9 record? Extremely unlikely.
November 16, 2009 | url
Votes: +1

Adrian Keogh said:

Goalin Crazy UK
Cheers Chris. Apologies I miss spoke, I understand the list, I don't understand the order?

I am just trying to see the usefulness of providing statistical rankings though, unsubstantiated projections? It doesn't work in my mind, but hey hopefully it helps someone?

Adrian.
November 15, 2009
Votes: +0

Dobber said:

Dobber
... You're gonna get a couple guys like this every month, Chris - they skip the explanation and go straight to the rankings. D'oh!
smilies/cool.gif
November 15, 2009
Votes: +0

Chris Boyle said:

cboyle55
Kovalchuk Like I described in the previous paragraph. Kovalchuk played only 10 games, it was not enough to place him in the top 100. Like I stated with Kopitar in the pre-season, if he stays healthy he will likely vault into the top ten for December.
November 15, 2009 | url
Votes: +0

Chris Boyle said:

cboyle55
To Adrian Keogh The list is based on ACTUAL production to this point in the season. I explain this EVERY single month.

Clarkson - 5G, 8 A, 13 PTS, +2, 31 PIMs, 43 SOG, 8 PP
Hartnell - 5G, 7A, 12 PTS, -1, 16 PIMs, 34 SOG, 6 PP

It does not take into account GP. If it did, Malkin would be at the top of the list, but he missed games that cost his owners. You may not view that as a big difference, but there are 30 players between Clarkson and Hartnell's 16 and 31 PIMs. That affects his ranking. 9 SOG has the same affect on his ranking.

Take it as a snapshot of what has occurred in the season to this point. Nothing else. I am not telling you that Clarkson is a better investment anymore than I am telling you that Dustin Penner is a better investment than Evgeni Malkin. Kunitz is ahead of Malkin because he has played 7 more games.

Take it for what it is. Right now the Avalanche are the 4th best team in the league, should we call the NHL and say this is not a proper appropriation of points at this time and point? They have played 2 more games than the Red Wings and we all know the Red Wings are the better team?

I provided the projections to show that some of these players are riding an inflated ranking. Should you go out and trade Ovechkin for Miller because he is number one? Of course not, one projection is unattainable, the other is likely.

All this list accomplishes is showing you who has got off to a great start. I am sorry if you do not understand the list, but TWICE I reitirated it's purpose in the top 3 paragraphs.

The ranking reflects the statistics accrued through Nov 13th and does not compensate for games missed. So although somebody like Malkin is projected for large numbers, his injury affected his ranking.

On to the list, and remember these rankings are not my opinion, they are based on statistics and that each category is weighted equally.
November 15, 2009 | url
Votes: +1

lcbtd said:

germant
Funny Some great lines in there. Good for a Sunday morning laugh!

No Kovalchuk though? I'm assuming his injury kept him from this list? I'd still rather have Kovie over Kunitz! smilies/grin.gif
November 15, 2009
Votes: +0

Glenn Wood said:

marauder
... is there a reason why all the thrashers are missing from the list?
November 15, 2009
Votes: +0

Adrian Keogh said:

Goalin Crazy UK
Huh? I don't understand this list? Hartnell at 100th and Clarkson at 32nd? But the real question if the end of year projections are pro-rated to include missed injury time, then how is Malkin still behind Kunitz when all his numbers even though he has only played 12 games kill Kunitz's?
Now if you say this is not just statistically based and includes hockey knowledge it makes the arguement even worse for having Malkin in the mid 40's with Kunitz ahead of him?
What is the target audience for this list, certainly not pools who want to win anything?
November 15, 2009
Votes: -2
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy