Jumbo Joe - is he happy? New NHL Lottery Odds, Corsi vs. Fenwick and more …

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The latest update for the Fantasy Hockey Guide is ready for download. Buy it here. Find me another fantasy guide out there with Kevin Hayes in the New York lineup with a projection. I dare ya! I also projected goals-for for every team, and the Draft List now has salary and cap information.

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Joe Thornton was stripped of the captain's 'C' yesterday, under the explanation that the team will have a clean slate and that nobody will wear the 'C'. This is per beatwriter David Pollak. I'm not sure how this will help his production. It certainly won't hurt it. But it may rub Jumbo Joe the wrong way and if that negativity grows, I suppose his odds of being traded will increase. The Sharks hinted at a major rebuild this offseason but I haven't seen it. All I've seen were the natural ins and outs of players. Martin Havlat and Dan Boyle are out, while John Scott and Tye McGinn are in? That's uh, quite the fire sale. Will fans even recognize this team anymore? Wow.

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Pollak also reports that Raffi Torres is out for the next "few months" because his knee has an infection, stemming from the surgery. Torres has really had his share of bad luck over the past three years and it's quickly relegating him to 'fringe NHL player'.

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The NHL has announced that there is a new format for the Entry Draft Lottery. Under the old system, the team that finishes last could fall no further than one spot. Under the new system there will be three lottery draws, meaning the team that finishes last could feasibly drop to the fourth overall draft pick. The lottery has been re-jigged to help all non-playoff teams, not just the worst ones. Here are the new Draft Lottery odds (new odds, old odds):

1 20.0% 25.0%

2 13.5% 18.8%

3 11.5% 14.2%

4 9.5%   10.7%

5 8.5%   8.1%

6 7.5%   6.2%

7 6.5%   4.7%

8 6.0%   3.6%

9 5.0%   2.7%

10 3.5% 2.1%

11 3.0% 1.5%

12 2.5% 1.1%

13 2.0% 0.8%

14 1.0% 0.5%

The three worst teams took a pretty big hit with these changes, but I do agree it's more fair. That being said, the timing is curious. It is the Connor McDavid year, right? How much will this discourage tanking? Optically, it looks to do a better job of discourage tanking. In reality, it does nothing. If I'm in a fantasy league with a lottery like this, and I need to rebuild - I'm still sinking as low as I can.

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For those curious and interested in learning about some advanced stats, the Blue Jackets posted an article comparing Corsi and Fenwick. My own opinion is - Fenwick is useless, since we have Corsi. And frankly, I don't know why it's even a commonly referred to stat in the hockey community. The explanation that blocked shots is often lucky is silly. Blocked shots are another "event" and the more events you can track, the more accurate the data. Sure, some blocked shots are lucky. Most are, even. But how is that relevant? The shot is still taken and that's what you're measuring. Anyway, FYI, Fenwick is useless.

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I still have the Bruins with a hole on the right side. Maybe they'll move Ryan Spooner there, or Matt Fraser. But still lots of unsigned options available too. Maybe they were waiting for the Hayes decision before going after someone like Devin Setoguchi (who would be useless on a checking line) or Drayson Bowman. Ryan Malone or Todd Bertuzzi are other options. Maybe Ryan Jones.

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Carolina is another team in need of one more right winger, though if Elias Lindholm or Riley Nash move to the wing they're okay. And Philadelphia could move one of their centers to the wing as well, but they also have a hole on the wing as things stand. I can see Boston, Carolina and Philly signing a winger before the summer is out.

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Announcement - I have a new product released. Just five bucks. Rob Vollman created a list of every player in the NHL and compared them by age and production historically to other players in other eras. It makes for a very interesting read if you like looking at charts, as he provides the "at best" and "at worst" scenarios to project a number for the coming season. It makes for a great reference when looking at my Fantasy Guide and Draft List. More details here.

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The site crashed again yesterday. I wish I could say it won't happen again, but it probably will as we work out some of the minor bugs. And that's all there is left really, just small things. But occasionally you make the wrong little tweak and things go very wrong. And yes, I should be doing it in a test environment now, but these are things that worked there and aren't working live because you can't mimic the traffic and load demands.

Three times I've fixed that article "How to Start a Keeper League" and the links within, and three times they broke again. Now they're fixed. Again.

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Kings' season in 60ish

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Comments  

#6 TeamFoster4 2014-08-21 20:08
FrozenPool Fantasy Game Planner does not have the 2014-15 Season loaded into it yet. Thank you.
#5 bjohns54 2014-08-21 18:59
Fenwick is most certainly NOT useless, but you hit the nail on the head by talking about "luck". Fenwick actually has a stronger correlation to winning than Corsi, but only over larger sample sizes. Due to the fact Corsi includes blocked shots, its sample size will simply be higher than Fenwick.

For single season data I prefer Corsi because of the larger sample size, but when more than one season's worth of data is available, Fenwick (in particular, Fenwick Close) is definitely a slightly better predictor of future success than Corsi.
#4 Dobber 2014-08-21 18:05
Quoting ultrawhiteness:
Fenwick and Corsi both have their uses, just not for the same thing.

Corsi is a proxy for possession time.

Fenwick is a proxy for scoring chances.

Corsi is a decent way to evaluate individuals, since the amount of time a player spends in the offensive zone can tell you how well they're doing.

Fenwick, on the other hand, is better used for evaluating teams, since as a simple stat it has proven the best we have for predicting actual wins.

If we had accurate stats for either possession time or scoring chances, you'd never hear of Corsi or Fenwick again.


Both are weak stats, but much stronger than plus/minus. With the existence of Corsi, Fenwick is irrelevent. Corsi is an equal proxy for scoring chances as Fenwick, don't let any non-stats person explain it differently. Excluding blocked shots in no way gives better accuracy to team evaluation.
#3 ultrawhiteness 2014-08-21 17:08
Fenwick and Corsi both have their uses, just not for the same thing.

Corsi is a proxy for possession time.

Fenwick is a proxy for scoring chances.

Corsi is a decent way to evaluate individuals, since the amount of time a player spends in the offensive zone can tell you how well they're doing.

Fenwick, on the other hand, is better used for evaluating teams, since as a simple stat it has proven the best we have for predicting actual wins.

If we had accurate stats for either possession time or scoring chances, you'd never hear of Corsi or Fenwick again.
#2 Scorgasm 2014-08-21 15:03
I don't think blocked shots are complete luck at all. If you are in the lane it hits you and if you are not in the lane it does not. Our friend CoD is a shot blocker extraordinaire. I know this because I am often his goalie. I think it is fair to add to the list.
+1 #1 UKflames 2014-08-21 11:14
Wow it seems that now advanced stats are accepted by NHL teams, even the Leafs are using it, those that have been pushing advanced stats no longer have to defend them and are turning on themselves "Fenwick is useless".
Now I don't know the difference between most of these stats but until all of these recent hirings you would not have seen one of the supporters of these stats say a bad word against them, seems the gloves are off.
(Just to be clear this is meant in good humour and not as a bash against that specific rambling :lol: )

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