MikeSantorelli


From fantasy irrelevant to depth option?

 

 

The city of Vancouver barely blinked last summer when the Canucks announced the signing of local product Mike Santorelli to a two way contract. It appeared to be a depth move that carried little significance in a city that was still in shock after the Cory Schneider trade. It was a signing that carried even less significance to poolies and their fantasy rosters. Santorelli was just coming off of two dismal seasons in Florida and Winnipeg. Basically, the five year pro had cemented himself as a rarely drafted asset in fantasy leagues everywhere.


Courtesy of Frozen Pool here is a look at Santorelli’s 2011-12 statistics.


2011-2012 Regular Season (Florida)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

60

9

2

11

0.18

15

-10

18

117

1

2

3

0

0

01:06

18.8

0.7

12:24

20.3

 

Santorelli’s 2012-2013 lockout shortened season was even less impressive:


2012-2013 Regular Season (Florida-Winnipeg)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

34

2

2

4

0.12

10

-12

2

35

1

0

0

0

0

00:15

4.9

0.4

11:52

19.5

 

The previous two seasons saw Santorelli post a combined 15 points in 94 games. His overall time on ice averaged around 12 minutes per game and his PP TOI dropped from just over a minute per game in 2011-2012 to virtually nothing last season. Going into this season, the 27-year-old was not even worth a flier in the 30th round of a draft that involved members of his own family. Even die hard Canucks fan Jeff Angus left Santorelli off of his draft queue.

 

Fresh Start


Before getting too down on Santorelli, it is worth turning the clock back a few seasons to have a look at his 2011-2012 campaign.


2010-2011 Regular Season (Florida)

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

%PP

%SH

%TOI

82

20

21

41

0.50

41

-17

20

193

4

5

12

1

1

48.4

24.4

27.3

 

A 20-goal season that saw him finish with over 40 points while playing in all 82 games is fantasy relevant in many leagues. Looking a bit deeper, one will notice that Santorelli also posted five PPG and 12 PPP. In deeper leagues, those would be nice contributions from a depth roster option. Perhaps Mike Gillis saw something this summer that other NHL GMs and all of us fantasy GMs refused to see.


Fast forward to the small sample size we have for 2013-2014 and so far Santorelli has posted some decent numbers. 


2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

Pace

+/-

PIM

Shots

GW

PPG

PPP

SHG

SHP

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

14

3

5

8

0.57

47

4

6

27

1

0

0

0

1

01:10

24.5

33.2

19:10

31.1

 

Most notable is his overall TOI which is over 19 minutes per game. After 14 games, Santorelli is on pro-rated pace of 47 points, which would be a career high. Although poolies should expect him to finish with 35-40 points this season, it is a decent improvement over the 15 total combined points from the past season and a half.


In regards to the power play this year, Santorelli has seen some time on the 2nd unit this season but has not posted any PPP yet. For some reason Tortorella does not seem deterred. In the recent Canucks-Red Wings game Santorelli played in every situation. Here is a breakdown of Santorelli’ time on ice.


EV TOI ‚Äď 19:27; PP TOI ‚Äď 2:30; SH TOI ‚Äď 0:28


Overall Santorelli played 22:25 against the Wings, good for fifth highest on the team. There have been some nights this season where Tortorella has given Santorelli the most TOI ‚Äď a positive sign which indicates Santorelli has a long leash right now. Showing enough versatility to produce alongside various teammates has also helped his cause this year.¬† ¬†¬†¬†


As of October 30th, here are Santorelli’s most frequent line-mates this season.


Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

19.1%

EV

25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - 22 SEDIN,DANIEL - 33 SEDIN,HENRIK

9.88%

EV

20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 9 KASSIAN,ZACK - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

7.87%

EV

36 HANSEN,JANNIK - 20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

7.39%

EV

15 RICHARDSON,BRAD - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - 32 WEISE,DALE

7.01%

SH

15 RICHARDSON,BRAD - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

6.72%

EV

36 HANSEN,JANNIK - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - 22 SEDIN,DANIEL

4.99%

EV

20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 17 KESLER,RYAN - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

4.41%

EV

7 BOOTH,DAVID - 15 RICHARDSON,BRAD - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

3.65%

EV

14 BURROWS,ALEXANDRE - 20 HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

 

Here is a snapshot of Santorelli’s line production this season which has been spread throughout various line combinations.


Total Points for Michael Santorelli : 8

Str

On Ice Line Combination

Points

%Total
Points

EV

RICHARDSON,BRAD - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

2

25%

EV

KESLER,RYAN - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - SEDIN,DANIEL

1

12.5%

SH

RICHARDSON,BRAD - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

1

12.5%

EV

HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - KESLER,RYAN - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

1

12.5%

EV

SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - SEDIN,DANIEL - SEDIN,HENRIK

1

12.5%

EV

HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL - SEDIN,HENRIK

1

12.5%

EV

HIGGINS,CHRISTOPHER - RICHARDSON,BRAD - SANTORELLI,MICHAEL

1

12.5%

 

No one is suggesting that fantasy GMs run out and grab Santorelli off of their waiver wire tomorrow, but he is worth keeping an eye on. There are already some believers. As of today, Santorelli is owned in 30% of CBS leagues and 9% of Yahoo leagues. If the Canucks lose Henrik Sedin (unlikely) or Ryan Kesler (more likely) due to injury at all this season, Santorelli could be the biggest beneficiary and we could see him maintain his current 45-50 point pace this season.   

 

Final Forensic Notes


Santorelli has won 60% of his face-offs this year (69 FOW to 46 FOL). If he continues to excel at the face-off circle, Tortorella will continue to rely on him. This is a major reason why Santorelli is seeing significant ice time this season. If your league counts FOW, then Santorelli is a decent option.


At just .550m/year, Santorelli is a potential bargain in cap leagues and could help GMs short term if they are tight against their league’s cap.


Santorelli is a career minus player (-48) but currently sits at plus four this season.

Expect Santorelli to play all 82 games and finish with 15 goals, 20 assists, 150 SOG, 20 PIM, 40 Hits, and 55% FOW (350 total).


 

Previously in Frozenpool Forensics:

 


 

Steen Engine

 

The Early Rise of Mason Raymond


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