KyleTurris

 

The better fantasy own - Matt Duchene or Kyle Turris? Answer will surprise you.

 

This week’s Cage Match examines two young centers – Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris – who most poolies would love to have on their teams right now. But which one will help your squad more over the course of the full season and beyond? You don’t need a crystal ball when you have Cage Match to tell the future!

 

Career Path and Contract Status

Both Duchene (in 2009) and Turris (in 2007) are former third overall draft picks; but that’s pretty much all they have in common in terms of what led them to this point in their careers.

Duchene was inserted into the NHL fulltime as an 18 year old, and oh boy did he hit the ground running, amassing 132 points in his first 161 games. His totals fell back a bit during the 2011-12 season that saw him dress for only 58 games due to leg and ankle injuries, playing hurt after the latter which led to him not even managing a 0.5 points per game output for the season. But any concerns about Duchene’s productivity have likely vanished after he rebounded to 43 points in 48 games last season and has come out of the gate this year with 19 points in his first 16 games.

Turris’ career journey has been more of a bumpy ride, particularly with Phoenix, where he spent his first three campaigns being shuttled between the NHL and AHL and compiled only 46 points in 131 NHL games. Then as an RFA prior to the 2011-12 season, Turris held out well into November before finally agreeing to a two year $2.8M deal with the Coyotes, who traded him to Ottawa almost before the ink had dried on the contract. With the Senators, Turris immediately showed signs of his true talent, tallying 58 points in 97 games. But he has really emerged in 2013-14, with 18 points through 17 games.

Turris agreed to a five year, $17.5M deal with Ottawa in August 2012 (to run through 2018), while Duchene is finishing a two year $7M contract this season before starting a new five year $30M deal.

Overall, Duchene gets the edge here as more of a proven commodity, although Turris’ fairly steady upward trajectory without a bad year “hiccup” like Duchene had in 2011-12 does win him some points.

 

Ice Time – Past Seasons and 2013-14 So Far

When considering this data, it’s worth remembering that Turris’ 2010-11 numbers were with Phoenix. And I only included his 2011-12 Ottawa numbers, not factoring in the six games he played with Phoenix that season before being dealt.

 

Season

Total Ice Time per game

Rank among team’s forwards

PP Ice Time per game

Rank among team’s forwards

SH Ice Time per game

2013-14

18:05 (M.D.)

19:31 (K.T.)

3rd

1st

2:47 (M.D.)

2:24 (K.T.)

2nd

4th

0:17 (M.D.)

2:23 (K.T.) – 3rd

2012-13

20:55 (M.D.)

19:38 (K.T.)

1st

1st

2:49 (M.D.)

2:44 (K.T.)

2nd

2nd

2:14 (M.D.) – 1st

1:25 (K.T.) – 8th

2011-12

16:17 (M.D.)

17:21 (K.T.)

8th

4th

2:24 (M.D.)

1:52 (K.T.)

1st

4th

0:02 (M.D.)

0:07 (K.T.)

2010-11

18:56 (M.D.)

11:16 (K.T.)

2nd

13th

2:50 (M.D.)

1:26 (K.T.)

3rd

9th

0:04 (M.D.)

0:04 (K.T.)

 

One thing that jumps out right away is that each player suddenly found himself “rewarded” with significant SH Ice Time in 2012-13 after having nearly none the prior two seasons. But what’s interesting is so far this season Duchene is back down to almost no SH Ice Time, while Turris finds himself with almost a full minute more than last year. If this keeps up, it will provide a nice benefit to Duchene and a potential drawback to Turris.

And although Turris is receiving nearly 90 seconds more of overall Ice Time per game than Duchene so far this season, their numbers are almost even if you subtract unproductive SH Ice Time. What’s more, Duchene’s 23 second edge in PP Ice Time this season might not look like much at first glance, but the more telling and advantageous number is Duchene’s percentage of overall Ice Time on the PP (15.4%) versus that of Turris (only 12.3%). And to make matters worse, Turris’s PP Ice Time is also down by over 10% from last season.

But the news is not all bad for Turris. While the fact that he’s once again leading all Ottawa forwards in overall Ice Time might not seem like a big deal after he already did it last season, consider that Jason Spezza has been healthy so far during 2013-14, yet despite that Turris has still managed to keep a lead in this area. This bodes well for the current season, and might be the first step in paving the way for Turris to become “the guy” in Ottawa.

In the end, Duchene gets the edge in this area, mostly due to his higher percentage of PP Ice Time and the concern over Turris’ increasing Shorthanded duties.

 

Injuries

Turris has avoided any notable injuries during his career; and other than leg and ankle issues during the 2011-12 season, so has Duchene.

But the fact that Duchene revealed after the 2011-12 season that he finished the year playing hurt is a bit of a red flag for poolies. While it shows admirable grit and determination for a player to never want to miss games, if that also means he’s willing to take the ice while banged up and only playing at – let’s say – 75% of his usual self, then poolies would suffer since they’d figure everything is fine and keep him in the line-up, to their detriment.

Small edge to Turris here, less so for actual injury risk than for Duchene possibly playing hurt in the future without poolies knowing.

 

Secondary Categories

Because games played varies each year I’m now listing all of these secondary categories (except for plus/minus) as per game numbers. I also added shooting percentage, since that will be especially relevant for 2013-14 as yet another factor to help see if the fast start for either player is more or less likely to continue.

 

Season

Plus/Minus

Hits per game

Blocked Shots

per game

PIMs

per game

Shots

per game (and %)

2013-14

 

+7 (M.D.)

+11 (K.T.)

0.9375 (M.D.)

0.588 (K.T.)

0.5 (M.D.)

0.529 (K.T.)

0 (M.D.)

0.47 (K.T.)

3.375 (M.D.) – 20.4%

2.88 (K.T.) – 8.2%

2012-13

 

-12 (M.D.)

+6 (K.T.)

1.02 (M.D.)

0.625 (K.T.)

1.00 (M.D.)

0.416 (K.T.)

0.255 (M.D.)

0.50 (K.T.)

2.81 (M.D.) – 12.9%

2.458 (K.T.) – 10.2%

2011-12

 

-11 (M.D.)

+12 (K.T.)

0.74 (M.D.)

0.4285 (K.T.)

0.707 (M.D.)

0.2653 (K.T.)

0.138 (M.D.)

0.5510 (K.T.)

2.275 (M.D.) – 10.6%

2.714 (K.T.) – 9.0%

2010-11

 

-8 (M.D.)

+0 (K.T.)

0.7125 (M.D.)

0.4615 (K.T.)

0.60 (M.D.)

0.2307 (K.T.)

0.4125 (M.D.)

0.2461 (K.T.)

2.525 (M.D.) – 13.4%

1.784 (K.T.) – 9.5%

 

Not only will Duchene give you more Hits, but his output is above average for a scoring center. This season has seen Duchene’s numbers in PIMs and Blocked Shots decrease, but neither player will give you much in these categories. Turris is the more consistent plus/minus contributor, but Duchene’s +7 so far this season isn’t just a case of him riding Colorado’s hot start, as that number puts him tied for fifth overall on the team.

Shots have been back and forth, but with Duchene holding decent edge in most seasons. Both players have very healthy Shots averages for centermen over the past two seasons, and were in the top 25 so far this season through November 11th.

Shooting percentage is interesting, as so far Turris is close to but actually below his year to year average, while Duchene is far above the 10-13% range from his most recent seasons, leading to Duchene tallying 11 goals in just his first 16 games (a 56 goal full season pace). Considering that Duchene has never even scored 30 goals over a full season in his career, look for his shooting percentage – and thus his goal totals – to come back to earth, although his overall points should stay solid.

 

Relative Value of Points

Points are more valuable for a fantasy team when they’re not shared by other players owned in your league, since those are the kinds of points that can cause actual movement in the standings. In looking at this area, it’s a good opportunity to examine the Frozen Pool data for each player in 2012-13 and to focus on the trends for this season thus far.

 

2012-13

 

48.52%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

13.57%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 7 MITCHELL,JOHN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

10.65%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

15.08%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

12.81%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 7 MITCHELL,JOHN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

12.4%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

 


14.34%

EV

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 73 LATENDRESSE,GUILLAUME - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

13.36%

EV

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 9 MICHALEK,MILAN - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

12.1%

EV

14 GREENING,COLIN - 33 SILFVERBERG,JAKOB - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

11.83%

EV

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 33 SILFVERBERG,JAKOB - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

31.36%

PP

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 73 LATENDRESSE,GUILLAUME - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

22.59%

PP

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 9 MICHALEK,MILAN - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

12.5%

PP

11 ALFREDSSON,DANIEL - 14 GREENING,COLIN - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

 

2013-14 (games through November 4nd)

 

54.31%

EV

17 DOWNIE,STEVE - 9 DUCHENE,MATT - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN

33.73%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

54.41%

PP

17 DOWNIE,STEVE - 9 DUCHENE,MATT - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 40 TANGUAY,ALEX

13.24%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

11.03%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 7 MITCHELL,JOHN - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

48.26%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 6 RYAN,BOBBY - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

20.7%

EV

89 CONACHER,CORY - 16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

38.22%

PP

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 6 RYAN,BOBBY - 19 SPEZZA,JASON - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

22.93%

PP

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 6 RYAN,BOBBY - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

17.2%

PP

89 CONACHER,CORY - 16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE - 7 TURRIS,KYLE

 

Turris’ fast start to 2013-14 is all the more impressive considering that three of his most frequent linemates from 2012-13 (Daniel AlfredssonGuillaume Latendresse, and Jacob Silfverberg) are no longer even on Ottawa. But in a similar vein, the majority of Duchene’s even strength time thus far in 2013-14 has been spent with one player – Steve Downie – who’s already been dealt, and another (Ryan O’Reilly) who was not a regular linemate during 2012-13.

If the last three games are any indication however, both players now appear to have a set pairing of wingers - Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur for Turris, and O’Reilly and P.A. Parenteau for Duchene, as these trios have lined up for over 80% of Turris and Duchene’s shifts in those three games. And although as of November 11th Ryan was 99% owned in Yahoo leagues, MacArthur was only owned in 20%, while Parenteau’s ownership sat lower than Ryan at 85% and O’Reilly (at 54%) was owned in nearly three times as many leagues as MacArthur.

Overall, these linemate ownership percentages balance out fairly well, giving neither player a clear edge in this area.

 

Value Vs. Cost

Like Ryan, Duchene is owned in 99% of Yahoo leagues, while Turris – still being less of a household name and without as much past success to point to – is owned in just 71% despite his fast start. These numbers emphasize that Duchene’s value already is in line with his production, whereas Turris’ isn’t as yet. This means you might still be able to get Turris for a bargain compared to his worth, and gives Turris a significant edge in this area.

 

So Who Wins?

In the end, I have to give a very narrow victory to Turris in one year leagues. Duchene is clearly more of a proven commodity, has several better Secondary Category numbers, no longer appears to be saddled with detrimental shorthanded duty, and gives poolies more of a balanced goals and assists total than most centers (including Turris). But as shown in the Yahoo ownership numbers, Turris gives you far better value for the stats he’s providing, and has a 2013-14 shooting percentage that’s actually a bit below his recent averages, unlike Duchene, whose is so unrealistically high that a goals (and perhaps points) correction is in order.

For keeper leagues, Turris wins as well, due to him having more room for improvement and fewer ifs. Turris is producing so well this season despite Jason Spezza still being the “1A” center and not to mention Turris’ 2:23 of SH Ice Time, slightly below average shooting percentage, and 36.0% offensive zone starts. In other words, things look like they can only improve for Turris down the road, even if (maybe especially if) Spezza is not re-signed after his deal ends next season.

On the other hand, I think that Duchene could be in for a bit of a rude awakening if – as expected – Paul Stastny heads elsewhere after this season. Stastny eats up a minute of SH Ice Time and only gets 42.3% offensive zone starts compared to Duchene’s 50%. If Duchene ends up having to absorb some of the “pain” that Stastny currently feels, then Duchene’s numbers could be at risk of once again falling below a point per game pace.

 

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