PA-Parenteau

 

Which disappointing player has more fantasy hockey value - Loui Eriksson or P-A Parenteau?

 

This week we focus on two players (Loui Eriksson and P-A Parenteau) having disappointing seasons. Does either have a chance of salvaging his current campaign, and what do their futures look like?

 

Career Path and Contract Status/Cap Hit

Before his breakout 53 point 2010-11 season with the Islanders, Parenteau had played a staggering 450 AHL games (with affiliates from the Ducks, Blackhawks, and Rangers) and just 27 NHL games. So even after climbing to 67 in 2011-12, there were plenty of skeptics who thought he’d be a risky UFA signing, since he’d no longer be lined up with John Tavares and because he might lose the “fire in his belly” after getting big bucks. But he responded with 43 points in 48 games in 2012-13, silencing many of his detractors in the process.

Eriksson also didn’t taste success right away, bouncing between the AHL and NHL for two seasons until tallying 63 points in 2008-09. Then he exploded for three consecutive 71+ point seasons, becoming one of less than a handful of players to finish in the top 23 in scoring for each of those three seasons. But after a drop to 29 points in 48 games last season (below a 50 point full season pace), Eriksson was moved to Boston as a key piece of the Tyler Seguin trade.

Both players are signed through 2015-16 with similar yearly cap hits (Eriksson’s is $4.25M, Parenteau’s $4M) that place them well outside the top 50 salaries of NHL forwards, including below several forward teammates (Colorado = Matt Duchene $6M, Gabriel Landeskog $5.57M; Boston = Patrice Bergeron $6.5M, Milan Lucic $6M, Brad Marchand $4.5M).

 

Ice Time/Linemates

Certainly the numbers this season will be crucial to assess, to try and shed light on their struggles. It’ll also be interesting to examine Eriksson’s data from his disappointing 2012-13.

 

Season

Total Ice Time per game (with rank among team’s forwards)

PP Ice Time per game (with rank among team’s forwards)

SH Ice Time per game (with rank among team’s forwards)

2013-14

17:10 (P.A.P) – 6th

16:03 (L.E.) – 5th

2:33 (P.A.P) – 4th

1:59 (L.E.) – 5th

0:02 (P.A.P) – 12th

1:13 (L.E.) – 6th

2012-13

19:08 (P.A.P) – 4th

20:07 (L.E.) – 1st

2:52 (P.A.P) – 1st

3:14 (L.E.) – 4th

0:02 (P.A.P) – 13th

1:37 (L.E.) – 5th

2011-12

18:39 (P.A.P) – 3rd

19:45 (L.E.) – 2nd

2:56 (P.A.P) – 3rd

2:38 (L.E.) – 3rd

0:01 (P.A.P) – 16th

1:46 (L.E.) – 3rd

2010-11

18:13 (P.A.P) – 4th

20:34 (L.E.) – 2nd

3:29 (P.A.P) – 3rd

3:23 (L.E.) – 4th

0:02 (P.A.P) – 14th

1:21 (L.E.) – 5th

 

Not surprisingly (given their drop in production), both players are seeing less overall Ice Time this season than in any of their previous three campaigns. But while the drop for Parenteau is roughly 10% from last season (and even less from his prior two campaigns), Eriksson’s has been precipitous, down 20% from last season and a similar amount from his previous two Dallas campaigns. But one thing to remember is that he skated only 21 seconds in the game where he received his second concussion, so he’d be near 16:30 per game without factoring in that contest.

It’s an even sadder story for Eriksson with PP Ice Time, as this season he’s below 2:00 per game after averaging 3:14 and 3:23 in two of the three previous campaigns. Parenteau is also below his previous average for PP Ice Time, but his two best seasons (2011-12 and 2012-13) came with less than 3:00 on the PP, so being right around the 2:30 mark for this season – while not ideal – is not deeply concerning.

But has less Ice Time also meant lesser quality Ice Time for either player? Let’s look to Frozen Pool for the answer:

 

 

Parenteau

 

2012-13

 

47.94%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

13.41%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 7 MITCHELL,JOHN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

10.52%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

16.52%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

14.03%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 7 MITCHELL,JOHN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

13.57%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

 

2013-14

 

25.38%

EV

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

18.78%

EV

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

15.48%

EV

29 MACKINNON,NATHAN - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

32.4%

PP

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL

15.92%

PP

9 DUCHENE,MATT - 11 MCGINN,JAMIE - 90 O'REILLY,RYAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE

12.01%

PP

92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL - 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN - 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE - 26 STASTNY,PAUL



Eriksson

 

2012-13

 

18.78%

EV

14 BENN,JAMIE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 13 WHITNEY,RAY

11.79%

EV

14 BENN,JAMIE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 68 JAGR,JAROMIR

18.59%

PP

14 BENN,JAMIE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 68 JAGR,JAROMIR - 13 WHITNEY,RAY

12.27%

PP

14 BENN,JAMIE - 72 COLE,ERIK - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 13 WHITNEY,RAY

 

2013-14 overall

 

47.61%

EV

37 BERGERON,PATRICE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 63 MARCHAND,BRAD

11.78%

EV

21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 23 KELLY,CHRIS - 34 SODERBERG,CARL

64.85%

PP

37 BERGERON,PATRICE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 18 SMITH,REILLY - 34 SODERBERG,CARL

 

2013-14 (last 10 games)

 

43.43%

EV

21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 23 KELLY,CHRIS - 34 SODERBERG,CARL

24.3%

EV

21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 20 PAILLE,DANIEL - 34 SODERBERG,CARL

10.76%

EV

21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 34 SODERBERG,CARL - 51 SPOONER,RYAN

78.43%

PP

37 BERGERON,PATRICE - 21 ERIKSSON,LOUI - 18 SMITH,REILLY - 34 SODERBERG,CARL

 

These numbers are troublesome for both players, but for different reasons. With Parenteau, one could argue that the overall quality of his linemates for 2013-14 is comparable to those he had in 2012-13 (less time with Matt Duchene, but also less with the likes of John Mitchell and Jamie McGinn), which makes his drop in production harder to explain even with a 10% dip in Ice Time. We’ll have to look closely at his other metrics (see below) to see if those provide further explanation.

As for Eriksson, his overall numbers still reflect his early season second line role, which, as we see from the data for his last ten games, has morphed into a purely third line spot. This isn’t the recipe for him to bounce back from a disappointing 2012-13, which, it’s worth noting, was spent playing primarily with Jamie Benn (33 points in 41 games) and Ray Whitney (29 points in 32 games), so it’s not like he was surrounded by unproductive linemates back then.

 

Other Metrics


Season

Shots (per game)

Personal Shooting Percentage

Team Shooting Percentage (5x5)

PDO (5x5)

Offensive Zone Start Percentage (5x5)

2013-14

 

1.89 (P.A.P)

1.78 (L.E.)

11.5% (P.A.P)

9.1% (L.E.)

9.44 (P.A.P)

7.84% (L.E.)

1001 (P.A.P)

1024 (L.E.)

50.9% (P.A.P)

57.4% (L.E.)

2012-13

 

2.19 (P.A.P)

2.17 (L.E.)

17.1% (P.A.P)

11.5% (L.E.)

8.46% (P.A.P)

7.46% (L.E.)

977 (P.A.P)

987 (L.E.)

56.6% (P.A.P)

50.8% (L.E.)

2011-12

 

2.09 (P.A.P)

2.28 (L.E.)

10.8% (P.A.P)

13.9% (L.E.)

9.03% (P.A.P)

10.54% (L.E.)

973 (P.A.P)

1018 (L.E.)

51.6% (P.A.P)

49.0% (L.E.)

2010-11

 

1.99 (P.A.P)

2.26 (L.E.)

12.4% (P.A.P)

15.1% (L.E.)

8.79% (P.A.P)

9.52% (L.E.)

990 (P.A.P)

1028 (L.E.)

49.5% (P.A.P)

49.8% (L.E.)

 

The only glimmers of hope for Eriksson in these numbers are the abnormally low team and personal shooting percentage numbers for 2012-13 and/or 2013-14. His PDO this season is on the upper end of the normal range (970-1030), although PDO numbers for nearly all Bruins forwards are high. As for Parenteau, his shooting percentage and offensive zone start percentage stick out as abnormally high for 2012-13, but his PDO was at the lower end of the normal range and his team shooting percentage numbers was actually his lowest among all these seasons. And nothing really jumps out for this season. Something still seems to be missing from piecing together the puzzle of Parenteau’s poor 2013-14.

 

Season

+/-

Hits

(per game)

Blocked Shots

(per game)

PIMs

(per game)

PP Points (per game)

2013-14

 

+2 (P.A.P)

+10 (L.E.)

0.52 (P.A.P)

0.24 (L.E.)

0.32 (P.A.P)

0.16 (L.E.)

0.52 (P.A.P)

0.11 (L.E.)

0.04 (P.A.P)

0.11 (L.E.)

2012-13

 

-11 (P.A.P)

+8 (L.E.)

1.04 (P.A.P)

0.125 (L.E.)

0.29 (P.A.P)

0.375 (L.E.)

0.79 (P.A.P)

0.16 (L.E.)

0.27 (P.A.P)

0.21 (L.E.)

2011-12

 

-8 (P.A.P)

+12 (L.E.)

1.24 (P.A.P)

0.24 (L.E.)

0.29 (P.A.P)

0.49 (L.E.)

1.11 (P.A.P)

0.14 (L.E.)

0.24 (P.A.P)

0.14 (L.E.)

2010-11

 

-8 (P.A.P)

+8 (L.E.)

1.45 (P.A.P)

0.33 (L.E.)

0.34 (P.A.P)

0.58 (L.E.)

0.57 (P.A.P)

0.10 (L.E.)

0.25 (P.A.P)

0.31 (L.E.)

 

I think we finally cracked the case about Parenteau. For the past three seasons, he averaged one PP point per every four games, while this season he has just TWO through 46 games! If only he was at his normal PP scoring pace, that’d mean nine more points thus far, and suddenly he’d be scoring at a 66 point full season pace. We saw above that he’s getting good quality PP Ice Time in terms of minutes and linemates, so this appears to be a case of temporary bad luck.

Eriksson’s PP scoring pace is down too, but not in uncharted territory (in 2011-12 he managed only one PP point per seven games). That suggests a PP points correction is not as likely to occur as compared to Parenteau, especially with Eriksson being on what amounts to Boston’s second PP unit and getting only 2:00 or so on the PP per game .

As far as other observations, Parenteau’s Hits continue to decline, so be wary of counting on him for those any longer. His PIMs pace is also the lowest it’s been, but he’s currently a plus player for the first time. Eriksson’s Hits and Blocked Shots are way down this year, but that’s not surprising given his concussions (and his Blocked Shots pace had fallen each of the previous three seasons).

 

Olympics, Trade Deadline and Missed Games

Prior to this campaign, Parenteau had missed only three games in his three full seasons. But this year has seen him miss 10 games with a sprained MCL, then several in January as a healthy scratch. But he’s drawn back into five consecutive games, with 16:00+ Ice Time in each and three points.

Parenteau isn’t going to Sochi, but has been mentioned in trade rumors. The magic question becomes what effect a trade could have on his production, and my gut tells me a player who fought so hard to even make it to the NHL, and whose pride has no doubt been hurt by being benched, would respond favorably to being on a new team.

Eriksson also had been remarkably healthy, missing a mere three games in the past five seasons. But two concussions within 45 days resulted in him sitting out 20 games this season, and has theoretically put him one hit away from missing a lot more. While we need only look to teammate Bergeron to see someone return to full health and ability after multiple serious concussions, the fact is Eriksson’s current value is affected by his risk of re-injury perhaps as much as any player. And it’ll likely take another year of being concussion free before his owners (not to mention he himself) can begin to see things as having returned to normal.

And although Eriksson will be playing in Sochi, I see it as a positive in his case. Not only will it likely enable him to skate with talented linemates and possibly get him “back on the horse,” but the Olympic style of play tends not to feature the kind of big hits that led to both of his concussions. Plus, he’s missed so many games and still has young legs (he’s 28) that the added contests won’t lead to fatigue for him as the NHL’s regular season drags on.

 

Who Wins?

Declaring a winner of this Cage Match has a lot to do with reading the tea leaves, especially about Eriksson. Was Eriksson already starting to decline before coming to Boston, only to see two closely spaced concussions make matters worse? Can he find a way to wedge himself into the Bruins top six, either this season or down the road, and does that even matter?

Let’s assume Eriksson plays out his contract with Boston. In a perfect world he was probably going to be only a 55-65 point player under Claude Julien’s system. After all, consider that no winger has scored more than 62 points in Boston since Claude Julien took over back in 2007-08 (Jarome Iginla is currently on pace for just under 62. But add to that the emergence of Reilly Smith and Eriksson’s concussions, and at this point it’s hard to confidently predict Eriksson getting 60 points in a season during his remaining time with Boston.

In the end, the choice here probably is Parenteau. This is his first subpar season since becoming a full time NHLer, while Eriksson had already fared poorly once despite – as we saw above – receiving plenty of quality Ice Time during 2012-13 with Dallas. Plus, a lot of Parenteau’s scoring woes for 2013-14 can likely be traced to simple bad luck on the PP. Sure – Parenteau could end up being traded to an offensively challenged squad like Nashville or Los Angeles or digging himself deeper into Patrick Roy’s doghouse; but for the time being he’s a safer bet when factoring in past data, present situations, and future variables.

This all having been said, I see both guys as potential buy low candidates (each is owned in 60-65% of Yahoo leagues) right now and, if they continue to struggle, even more so during the offseason. Remember – the key in fantasy hockey is getting players for a bargain cost compared to their value, so even if neither one ultimately hits 70 points in a full season over the next few campaigns it still could make sense to draft or trade for them if they’re valued – incorrectly – as more like a 50 point player.

 

Also check out:

 

Matt Carle vs. Fedor Tyutin 
Bobby Ryan vs. Jordan Eberle 
David Perron vs. Mats Zuccarello 
Tyler Seguin vs. Claude Giroux 

 

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